China Fires Nuclear Missile From Submarine; Arsenal Tripled to 600 Warheads—July 11

China fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, marking the first underwater launch of its kind. The test, carrying a dummy warhead, occurred as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was in Fiji signing Australia’s first defence alliance with the island nation. Beijing called the launch routine, but experts say it signals a major shift in China’s military posture and a direct challenge to US influence in the region.

The missile test and its timing

The Chinese military launched the ballistic missile, believed to be the JL-3 model with a range of approximately 10,000 kilometres, from a nuclear-powered submarine on Monday. The dummy warhead landed near Tuvalu and Nauru in international waters. Two Chinese tracking ships, Yuan Wang 3 and Yuan Wang 6, were positioned near the Federated States of Micronesia during the test, while a third vessel, Yuan Wang 5, remained berthed in Fiji’s capital of Suva. Military experts believe these ships, equipped with sophisticated surveillance equipment, were collecting data on the missile and transmitting it to Beijing.

China’s nuclear arsenal expansion

According to the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China has tripled the size of its nuclear arsenal from 200 weapons to over 600 in the past six years. The Pentagon estimates China’s arsenal will exceed 1,000 nuclear missiles by 2030. The People’s Liberation Army has also built the world’s largest arsenal of ground-based conventional and dual-use missiles, surpassing the US Navy in the number of ballistic missile submarines.

Regional alarm and diplomatic fallout

Pacific leaders have condemned the test, with Palau’s President warning of rising nuclear anxiety across the region. The missile’s 10,000-kilometre range puts Australia and all South Pacific island nations within striking distance. The test occurred just hours after Albanese and Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka signed a historic military alliance, which experts say gave Australia a strategic advantage by demonstrating commitment to the region at a critical moment.

Strategic messaging and military modernisation

Experts say the test was primarily aimed at the United States, signalling China’s emergence as a first-rank nuclear superpower and challenging American hegemony in the Pacific. China’s military has set a goal to become a “world-class” fighting force by 2050, with major modernisation underway. The test marks only the second ballistic missile launch into international Pacific waters in two years, but the first ever from a submarine, representing a qualitative leap in Beijing’s nuclear capability.

Final Thoughts

China’s submarine-launched missile test signals a dramatic shift in Pacific power dynamics and nuclear strategy. For Australian investors and policymakers, the timing alongside the Fiji defence pact underscores the urgency of regional security partnerships amid Beijing’s rapid military expansion.

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