China Fires Nuclear-Capable Missile From Submarine; Arsenal Tripled in Six Years

China fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a submarine into the South Pacific on July 6, marking the first underwater launch of its kind and the first test in two years. The JL-3 missile has a range of about 10,000 kilometres, putting Australia and the entire Pacific region within striking distance. The test has triggered sharp condemnation from Pacific leaders and Australia, with Beijing saying it was routine training.

The missile and what it changes

The missile, believed to be China’s JL-3, was fired from a nuclear-powered submarine and carried a dummy warhead. It landed in a designated area near Tuvalu after advance notification to regional governments. The 10,000-kilometre range means Australia, New Zealand, and all Pacific nations are now within reach of a weapon launched from underwater, a capability China had never before demonstrated publicly.

China’s nuclear arsenal has grown dramatically

According to the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China has tripled its nuclear arsenal from 200 weapons to over 600 in the last six years. The Pentagon estimates that number will climb to more than 1,000 nuclear missiles by 2030. CSIS also found that China’s People’s Liberation Army rocket force now operates the world’s largest arsenal of ground-based conventional and dual-use missiles.

Pacific and Australian leaders condemn the test

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the test destabilising and said it must be viewed in the context of China’s rapid military buildup lacking transparency. Tonga’s Prime Minister Lord Fatafehi Fakafānua said the test “created tension in the Pacific” and that “any escalation to militarise the ocean” is not supported by Pacific nations. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale said the test is “not something a friend does.” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters called it “an unwelcome and concerning development.”

Australia responds with missile defence test

Days after China’s launch, the Australian Defence Force tested its Standard Missile-2 interceptor system at the Woomera range in South Australia. The missile has a 166-kilometre range and is used by the Royal Australian Navy with an American launcher and control system. Defence Minister Richard Marles said the test demonstrated Australia’s defence capabilities. Outgoing defence force chief Admiral David Johnston warned Australia must “act with a greater degree of urgency” as China’s military increasingly operates closer to Australian waters.

Final Thoughts

China’s submarine-launched missile test signals a major shift in Pacific military dynamics. With its arsenal tripled to over 600 warheads and new underwater launch capability, Beijing has created a credible nuclear deterrent that reaches across the entire region, forcing Australia and Pacific allies to accelerate their own defence modernisation.

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