Australia’s Spring Forecast: Above-Average Heat Expected After Record Warm Winter

Australia’s winter 2026 shattered temperature records from Sydney to Tasmania, with spring now forecast to bring more heat. Sydney recorded its warmest winter mean temperature of 15.3 degrees Celsius, breaking the 2013 record of 15.0 degrees. The Bureau of Meteorology predicts above-average daytime and night-time temperatures will persist through spring, with an increased chance of unusually high maximums across much of the country.

Which cities hit record winter temperatures

Sydney’s mean winter temperature of 15.3 degrees at Observatory Hill broke the previous 2013 record of 15.0 degrees, according to Dr Simon Grainger, a senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology. Melbourne equalled its 2005 record for winter mean temperature of 12.2 degrees, though one source cited 12.8 degrees as the official record. Canberra recorded its warmest winter maximum, with an average maximum temperature of 14.7 degrees. New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania all experienced their warmest winters on record since 1910.

Why winter was so warm across the country

El Niño strengthened throughout winter, reducing rainfall and cloud cover across southeastern Australia and increasing daytime maximums, particularly in the Australian Alps. High-pressure systems sitting in the Tasman Sea allowed warmer air to flow down from the tropics over eastern Australia, with fewer outbreaks of cold air. Dr Grainger noted that “relatively warm nights and a lot fewer cold nights” characterised the season, while global warming provided the underlying backdrop for all temperature anomalies. Australia’s mean temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above the 1961 to 1990 average for winter, the equal third-highest on record since 1910.

Spring outlook signals continued heat

The Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook shows above-average daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to continue for much of the country, with an increased chance of unusually high maximums. Sydney can expect the warmest start to spring in more than 50 years, with temperatures predicted to reach between 24 and 27 degrees this week. Brisbane temperatures are also expected to soar, potentially reaching 33 degrees by Thursday and staying within a few degrees of that maximum at the weekend.

Ski resorts close early as snow fails to return

Mt Baw Baw and Selwyn Snow Resort in Victoria and New South Wales closed in August after warm temperatures and rain eroded snow cover. Selwyn reported that cold temperatures required for snowmaking failed to arrive, forcing an early end to the 2026 season. Climate advocacy group Protect Our Winters Australia cited Bureau of Meteorology data showing record mean temperatures from June to August across Victoria, New South Wales, the ACT and Tasmania. The early closures are pushing more Australian winter holiday spending towards New Zealand, Japan, Canada, the US and Europe.

Final Thoughts

Australia faces a spring as warm as its record-breaking winter, with above-average temperatures forecast nationwide and unusually high maximums likely. Early ski resort closures signal a shift in where Australians seek winter holidays, with international travel increasingly replacing domestic snow trips.

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