ASX 200 Jumps 2% on Iran Peace Deal Hopes, June 13

The ASX 200 climbed 170.8 points or 1.98% to 8,804 on Friday, marking its best day since April 8. The rally was driven by US President Trump’s announcement that an Iran peace deal could be signed this weekend, combined with falling odds of an RBA rate hike in August. The index gained 2.07% over the week and now sits 4.33% below its 52-week high.

Peace Deal Eases Geopolitical Risk

Trump cancelled planned military strikes on Iran and signalled ongoing high-level negotiations could produce a deal by the weekend. Iran’s Supreme Leader approved a framework for finalisation within days. This shift reduced immediate conflict risk and sent oil prices to two-month lows. Brent crude fell 2% to $88.60 per barrel, easing fears about prolonged elevated energy costs.

Rate Expectations Shift Sharply Lower

RBA August rate-hike odds collapsed from over 80% last month to just 28% this week, according to market pricing data. Softer domestic economic data prompted economists to call an end to the central bank’s tightening cycle. Lower rate expectations boosted interest-rate-sensitive sectors including consumer discretionary, which surged 8.33% for the week.

Broad Sector Gains Led by Materials

Nine of eleven sectors finished in positive territory. Materials surged 4.06% as gold rebounded from a bear market (down 20% from recent highs) and copper prices jumped. BHP rose 3.5% to $62.93 AUD. Consumer discretionary added 2.05%, A-REITs gained 1.80%, and financials climbed 1.61%. Only energy and telecom services declined, with energy down 0.46% as oil fell.

Technical Setup Favours Further Gains

The index reclaimed territory above its 200-day moving average at 8,804 and is testing recent range highs at 8,811. RSI and MACD indicators on the 4-hour chart favour upside momentum. If the index holds above 8,811, analysts target 8,900 as the next level. The RBA decision on Tuesday at 2:30pm AEST will be the key event this week.

Final Thoughts

The ASX 200 has broken a two-week losing streak on falling rate-hike odds and geopolitical relief. With the index above its 200-day average and technical indicators bullish, the near-term bias is higher, though Tuesday’s RBA decision carries execution risk.

FAQs

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.