AfD Extends Lead to 8 Points Over CDU/CSU in Latest German Poll, July 19

The AfD has expanded its lead over the CDU/CSU to eight percentage points in the latest Insa poll released July 19. The far-right party reached 29 percent, up one point from the previous week, while the Union fell to 21 percent. The SPD and Greens each gained one point to reach 13 percent, but the ruling coalition’s combined support dropped to just 34 percent, leaving only a three-party alliance as a viable governing option.

AfD widens gap as Union stumbles

The AfD’s 29 percent support marks its strongest position in the Insa survey, conducted July 13-17 with 1,201 respondents. The Union’s decline to 21 percent opens an eight-point gap, up from six points the previous week. The survey was completed before Union faction chief Jens Spahn announced his resignation over criticism of his use of a US surrogate mother, a practice banned in Germany and opposed by the CDU.

Coalition math narrows for Merz’s government

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s black-red coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD) now commands only 34 percent combined, down from 35 percent. The only viable majority would require a three-party “Kenya” coalition of Union, SPD, and Greens with 47 percent. An AfD-Union alliance would reach 50 percent but the CDU has ruled out such a partnership. The Insa poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Left and minor parties lose ground

The Left Party fell one point to 10 percent, while the BSW dropped one point to 3 percent. The FDP remained flat at 4 percent. Both the BSW and FDP would fail to clear the 5 percent threshold needed for Bundestag representation. Together, parties falling below the threshold account for 14 percent of voter support, according to Insa chief Hermann Binkert.

Spahn’s exit triggers leadership questions

Merz told ZDF on July 19 that he would not exclude a cabinet reshuffle following Spahn’s resignation. The chancellor said a successor would be named by late July. Merz noted that Spahn’s departure could be “an opportunity to think again about the structure of the federal government,” though he emphasized the matter was not urgent. The Union faction remains operational during the parliamentary summer recess.

Final Thoughts

The AfD’s commanding 8-point lead signals deepening challenges for Merz’s coalition. Without a three-party agreement, Germany faces gridlock. Spahn’s exit adds uncertainty to Union stability just as the party loses ground in the polls.

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