135% Upside, Says One Bank. So Why Did SpaceX Just Lose $500 Billion?

SpaceX stock has lost more than $500 billion in market value since its June 12, 2026 IPO. Shares priced at $135 have since traded as low as $104.83. Yet Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 price target, implying substantial upside from current levels. SpaceX now heads into its first-ever public earnings report on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

SpaceX Stock Price: From $135 IPO to Sharp Selloff

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) traded at $114.53 as of August 3, 2026, up from a previous close of $108.37. The stock’s 52-week range spans $104.83 to $225.64, showing extreme post-IPO volatility. That range reflects a stunning reversal from euphoric early trading.

Several factors have compounded this sharp decline since June.

• Shares fell from a 52-week high of $225.64 to $113.50 by July 27
• That slide erased more than $1.2 trillion in market value from the June peak
• Short sellers reportedly profited roughly $15.5 billion during the drop

SpaceX’s market capitalization now sits around $1.5 trillion, down from over $2 trillion shortly after listing. This decline occurred even before major lock-up expirations begin releasing more shares later this year.

Why One Bank Sees 135% Upside for SpaceX

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, among the most bullish on Wall Street. That target implies significant upside from Monday’s trading levels near $114. Jonas points to SpaceX’s AI computing expansion as the primary catalyst.

Wall Street Remains Split on Valuation

SpaceX carries a consensus “Buy” rating from 33 covering analysts, with 22 rating shares “Strong Buy.” The average 12-month price target sits near $236.71, implying roughly 107% upside from current levels. Bernstein’s Douglas Harned reiterated Outperform with a $239 target after July’s Starship test.

Price targets vary dramatically across the analyst community tracking SpaceX. Raymond James holds the Street-high estimate at $800, while one analyst’s low sits at $62. This wide dispersion reflects deep uncertainty around SpaceX’s AI and Starship-driven growth story.

What’s Driving SpaceX’s Q2 Earnings Ahead of Tuesday

SpaceX reports Q2 2026 results Tuesday after market close, its first as a public company. Q1 2026 revenue reached $4.7 billion, led by Starlink connectivity at $3.3 billion. The AI segment contributed $818 million, with the space launch segment adding $619 million.

Profitability remains a key concern heading into this report for investors.

• SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in full-year 2025
• Q1 2026 alone produced a net loss of $4.28 billion
• The stock’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 82.7 times

SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight launched July 24, 2026, successfully deploying 20 production Starlink V3 satellites. However, only 8 of 13 booster engines relit for landing, causing a hard splashdown. Bernstein called the mission a “major success” despite that one material issue.

Our Take

SpaceX’s massive valuation swing highlights the tension between explosive AI ambitions and real near-term losses. Tuesday’s earnings report should clarify whether Starlink’s profitability can offset ongoing losses from Starship and AI investments. 

Competing satellite ventures like Amazon’s Project Kuiper add further pressure on SpaceX’s connectivity growth story. Until Starship demonstrates reliable reuse and orbital data centers gain traction, expect continued volatility across SpaceX’s stock price.

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.