TMUS Stock Today: Q4 Revenue Beat, Adds Miss as Competition Heats – February 11

T-Mobile earnings are in focus after the carrier posted a Q4 revenue beat while subscriber adds fell short. The company added 962,000 postpaid phone customers versus FactSet’s 981,000 estimate as holiday promos from rivals tightened the race. Churn ticked up to 1.02% and annual free cash flow guidance of $18.0–$18.7 billion trailed ~ $18.9 billion consensus. For U.S. investors tracking NASDAQ: TMUS, today’s update highlights near-term margin pressure but still solid share gains. We break down the numbers, guidance, and what to watch next for TMUS stock today.

Q4 Results: Beat on Revenue, Miss on Adds

Revenue came in at $24.33 billion, topping expectations and confirming continued growth in premium accounts. Postpaid phone net adds were 962,000, still the best among national carriers but shy of the 981,000 estimate. Churn rose to 1.02%, signaling slightly softer retention during a heavy promotional quarter. Together, these trends frame a mixed but resilient T-Mobile earnings print.

Aggressive holiday deals from Verizon and others raised switching activity, compressing conversion and upsell rates. That dynamic explains why postpaid subscriber growth missed estimates despite strong gross adds. The competitive backdrop also lifted churn from recent lows. Management positioned the adds shortfall as timing related rather than structural weakness, per reporting from CNBC.

Management guided 2026 adjusted free cash flow to $18.0–$18.7 billion, modestly below the ~ $18.9 billion consensus. The outlook reflects ongoing investment in network quality and selective promos to protect share. Investors should expect steadier cash conversion in the back half if churn normalizes, mix shifts to higher-value plans, and promotional intensity cools, as noted by The Wall Street Journal.

Profitability, Cash Flow, and Capital Returns

The free cash flow guidance of $18.0–$18.7 billion implies solid cash generation but with less upside than hoped. It likely bakes in cautious assumptions on promo spend and device subsidies. On fundamentals, TTM price-to-free-cash-flow is about 12.96, and operating cash flow per share is 25.06, leaving room for ongoing shareholder returns if execution holds.

Postpaid mix and churn are key margin drivers into mid-2026. Slight churn pressure (1.02%) can dilute service margins if it persists, but pricing discipline and upsell to premium tiers can offset. TTM operating margin sits near 20.7% and net margin near 12.4%, indicating good cost control. Stabilizing competitive intensity would aid the T-Mobile earnings setup.

T-Mobile now pays a regular dividend, with a trailing 12‑month dividend per share of $3.66 and an implied yield near 1.75%. Weighted average shares declined about 1.34% year over year, supporting EPS growth. With a payout ratio near 37%, management retains flexibility to balance network investment, buybacks, and future dividend raises as free cash flow scales.

What It Means for TMUS Stock Today

TMUS trades at roughly 21.2 times TTM earnings and 2.64 times sales. Leverage is manageable, with net debt to EBITDA around 3.93 and interest coverage above 10x. These marks look reasonable for a scale leader with sticky customers. Analyst views are constructive: 9 Buy, 6 Hold, and no Sells in our tally, supporting a positive T-Mobile earnings lens.

Momentum is mixed near term. RSI sits around 47.9, and MACD’s histogram turned positive, hinting at stabilization. The 50‑day average near $197.26 is a pivot, with Bollinger supports and resistance near $193.9 and $204. The 200‑day around $225.13 remains a longer-term hurdle. ATR near 3.84 suggests moderate daily range.

Focus on postpaid subscriber growth versus promotions from Verizon and AT&T, churn trajectory, and service revenue ARPU. Tracking free cash flow guidance progress will be central to the T-Mobile earnings narrative. The next results are expected on April 22 after the close. A cleaner competitive backdrop and improving retention would likely support multiple stability.

Final Thoughts

T-Mobile earnings delivered a revenue beat but a narrow miss on postpaid phone adds as holiday promotions heightened churn and pressured near-term cash flow. Guidance for $18.0–$18.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow is solid yet slightly below consensus, keeping execution in the spotlight. For TMUS stock today, valuation looks fair for a share‑gaining leader, with healthy margins and manageable leverage. Near term, we would track churn, ARPU, and promo intensity across carriers. If retention firms and mix shifts toward premium plans, free cash flow should trend toward the high end of guidance. Long-term holders may see volatility as an opportunity while awaiting clearer signs of cash acceleration.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.