^NDX Today: February 15 – US-Taiwan Tariff Deal Puts AI Chips in Focus

The US-Taiwan tariff deal is front and center for Nasdaq 100 today as investors weigh a lower-risk path for AI hardware. The pact caps US tariffs on Taiwanese goods at up to 15%, secures $44.4 billion in US energy purchases by Taiwan, and prioritizes semiconductors. For Germany, this matters because local manufacturers and savers are exposed to the semiconductor supply chain through US tech ETFs and chip suppliers. We break down index levels, chip stocks read-through, and practical steps for portfolios.

Nasdaq 100: snapshot and technical setup

We see the Nasdaq 100 at 24,732.73, up 0.18% on the latest print, with an intraday range of 24,514.96 to 24,921.47. The index sits below its 50-day average at 25,437.37 but above its 200-day at 23,858.57. Year-to-date performance is negative at about −1.88%, while the 1-year gain stands near 12.26%, showing medium-term strength despite recent consolidation.

RSI sits at 40.44, indicating cooling momentum without a clear oversold signal. MACD is negative, suggesting trend fatigue, while ATR at 419.79 points flags wider daily swings. Bollinger Bands span 24,496 to 26,171, and Keltner Channels 24,389 to 26,068. Price near the lower bands implies a potential support zone if sellers fail to press below 24,500.

Awesome Oscillator is negative and Williams %R at −84.66 points to short-term weakness. The Stochastic %K at 24.18 hints at a possible bounce if buyers defend support. With ADX at 20.51, trend strength is modest. We expect headlines around the US-Taiwan tariff deal and any China response to drive near-term index swings, especially in AI and chip leaders.

What the US-Taiwan tariff deal changes for AI chips

The US-Taiwan tariff deal caps US tariffs on Taiwanese goods at up to 15% and secures $44.4 billion of US energy imports by Taiwan. It also prioritizes coordination on semiconductors to harden high-tech supply chains. These points can ease cost and supply risks for AI hardware. See reporting from Spiegel.

The accord still needs approval in Taiwan’s parliament, and markets watch for Beijing’s reaction. A measured response could support risk appetite in chip stocks, while a sharp policy pushback would trim gains. The partnership signal is clear, but execution timelines matter for production cycles. Coverage: Handelsblatt.

The Nasdaq 100 is AI-heavy. Lower tariff uncertainty and clearer energy sourcing reduce logistics and input risk for GPU supply and advanced packaging. That can lift sentiment for leading chip stocks and hyperscale names that rely on steady chip deliveries. Any upside may cluster around semis and infrastructure software, while consumer tech likely lags the direct supply chain boost.

Implications for German investors

Germany’s industry depends on a stable semiconductor supply chain. A more predictable flow of advanced chips can support autos, factory automation, and cloud adoption. For savers holding US tech ETFs in euro, this can reduce event risk. Domestic chip-exposed names and suppliers also benefit when global capex plans hold steady and delivery schedules improve.

We focus on liquidity in US hours and watch EUR/USD when sizing positions. For euro-based portfolios, consider hedged share classes if currency swings are material. Align entries with volatility bands and earnings calendars. Use staged orders around support levels to avoid slippage in fast markets. Reassess exposure if China policy headlines shift risk quickly.

Track Taiwan’s parliamentary timeline, US export controls, and any China countermeasures. Monitor lead times for HBM, advanced nodes, and packaging. Watch inventory trends at chipmakers and cloud buyers. Maintain position limits, diversify across AI hardware and software, and place stops below key supports. Keep dry powder for pullbacks if policy signals turn less friendly to trade.

Key levels, scenarios, and time horizons

Support sits near the lower Bollinger Band at 24,496 and Keltner lower at 24,389. Resistance appears around the middle Bollinger at 25,334 and the 50-day average at 25,437, then the upper band near 26,171. With ATR near 420 points, a typical one-day swing can span 1.6%–1.8%. Respect these bands when setting entries and stops.

Base case: range trade between 24,400 and 25,500 as the US-Taiwan tariff deal digests. Bull case: a close above 25,500 opens 26,100–26,200. Bear case: a break below 24,400 risks 24,000. Watch volume on any break. Earnings guidance from AI leaders can tip momentum at these edges.

Model projections imply monthly mean near 23,038 and quarterly near 25,615, with yearly centered about 25,794. Three to five years out, paths cluster around 31,037 to 36,281, rising toward 41,620 at seven years. These are directional, not promises. We pair them with fundamentals, capex cycles, and policy signals before sizing positions.

Final Thoughts

The US-Taiwan tariff deal points to lower policy friction for semiconductors, which matters for an AI-led Nasdaq 100 and for German investors exposed through ETFs and suppliers. Near term, we watch support around 24,400–24,500 and resistance near 25,300–25,450, with volatility around 420 index points. A calm reaction from Beijing keeps the upside case alive for chip stocks, while a harsher stance could cap rallies. Our approach is simple: scale entries near support, trim into resistance, use stops just beyond recent ranges, and review exposure after each policy milestone in Taipei and Washington. Stay focused on supply chain updates and earnings guidance from AI leaders.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.