F Stock Today: February 10 — Tariffs Drive Q4 Miss, 2026 Outlook Up

Ford stock (F) is in focus after a Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.13 missed the $0.19 consensus, with about $900 million in tariff costs and an aluminum supply hit cited. Shares rose nearly 2% after-hours as management guided 2026 EBIT to $8 to $10 billion and free cash flow to $5 to $6 billion. For Canadian investors, Ford stock combines high income potential with policy and EV execution risks. We break down results, outlook, price levels, and what matters north of the border.

Q4 results: tariffs and supply shock

Ford reported adjusted EPS of $0.13 versus $0.19 expected after the close on February 10, 2026. Management pointed to roughly $900 million in unexpected tariff costs and supply disruption from a Novelis aluminum plant fire as key drivers of the miss. The update still lifted sentiment, with shares up almost 2% after-hours. Coverage highlighted the worst quarterly miss in four years alongside a firmer 2026 setup source.

Ford Pro and Ford Blue continued to provide steadier profit support, while Model e remains a drag. Management framed 2026 EV operating losses at about $4 to $4.5 billion as the company retools, offsets costs, and scales future models. Investors now weigh near-term pressure against clearer profitability next year, with margins leaning on commercial vehicles and trucks while EV timelines and material costs remain swing factors.

2026 outlook: EBIT and cash priorities

Management guided 2026 EBIT to $8 to $10 billion and free cash flow to $5 to $6 billion, suggesting stronger operations even as EV losses persist. The setup implies better conversion from earnings to cash, helped by Ford Pro mix and cost actions. A clearer path to cash generation could support capital returns alongside ongoing investment, provided tariff exposure and input costs stabilize.

For Canadians considering Ford stock, note results, dividends, and the share price are reported in USD. Your returns translate into CAD, so USD/CAD moves matter. Tariff policy and metals pricing also affect costs and vehicle margins, which can ripple into cash flow. Local coverage flagged the tariff bill but noted a rebound outlook into 2026 source.

Price action and technical view

Ford stock last traded at $13.59, with a day range of $13.53 to $13.78, versus a 52-week high of $14.50 and low of $8.44. The 50-day average sits at $13.55, above the 200-day at $12.00, confirming an uptrend. One-year performance is up 47.08%, and shares rose nearly 2% after-hours post-earnings. These levels frame near-term support and resistance for active traders.

Momentum is firm: RSI is 66.27, CCI is 183.51, and Stochastics %K is 85.86, all near overbought territory. The Bollinger upper band is $14.18, close to the 52-week high, while ATR of $0.29 signals moderate daily swings. With MACD positive and ADX at 22.32, trend strength is building, but overbought readings raise pullback risk near resistance.

Valuation and Street stance

At $13.59, Ford stock trades at 11.55x TTM EPS, 0.28x sales, 4.49x free cash flow, and 1.15x book. The TTM dividend yield is about 5.5% in USD. Debt-to-equity is 3.47 and interest coverage is 2.98, so leverage is a watch item. Cash per share is $10.59, and free cash flow yield sits near 22%, supporting valuation.

Street views remain cautious: 3 Buy, 19 Hold, and 1 Sell, for a Hold consensus. Our system rates the company B+ with a Neutral stance, and the stock earns a B “HOLD” grade overall. The mix reflects solid income and improving cash outlook balanced against EV losses, leverage, and policy risk tied to tariff costs.

Final Thoughts

Ford stock presents a clear trade-off. Q4 missed on tariffs and supply snags, yet 2026 guidance points to stronger EBIT of $8 to $10 billion and free cash flow of $5 to $6 billion. The income case is strong with a roughly 5.5% USD yield, while valuation near 11.5x earnings looks reasonable. For Canadians, returns and dividends convert from USD, so the loonie and policy shifts matter. Technically, price sits above the 50- and 200-day averages, with overbought signals near the $14.18 Bollinger upper band and the $14.50 52-week high. Near term, we would watch tariff headlines, materials supply, EV execution, and whether momentum can carry shares through resistance on rising volume.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.