BBAI BigBear.ai (NYSE) closed $4.43 on 11 Feb 2026: Market waits for AI revenue proof

BBAI stock closed at $4.43 (NYSE, United States) on 11 Feb 2026 as markets shut, down 2.85% on the day. Volume reached 54,404,063 shares versus a 50-day average of 74,351,127, keeping price action volatile. Investors are focused on BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.’s transition from services to a platform-led AI model after the Ask Sage acquisition. We review recent metrics, analyst context, and Meyka AI model projections to show where valuation, cash metrics, and execution risks meet AI opportunity.

BBAI stock: market snapshot and price action

BigBear.ai (BBAI) finished the session at $4.43 USD on the NYSE. The intraday range was $4.26–$4.64 USD, with the stock opening at $4.61 USD. The one-year range is $2.36–$10.36 USD, and market capitalization stands at $1,642,735,590.00 USD.

Daily technical pressure shows the share price beneath the 50-day average $5.91 USD and the 200-day average $5.76 USD, matching recent reports that selling has intensified on execution uncertainty.

BBAI stock: fundamentals, margins and cash metrics

Latest reported EPS is -1.45 USD and the trailing PE reads -3.06. Revenue per share TTM is 0.36 USD, with net income per share TTM at -1.10 USD. The current ratio is 3.13, and debt to equity is 0.19, suggesting a manageable balance sheet.

Operating and free cash flow per share are negative at -0.09 USD and -0.10 USD respectively, which keeps focus on profit convertibility as BigBear.ai scales Ask Sage into recurring revenue.

BBAI stock: Meyka AI grade and model forecast

Meyka AI rates BBAI with a score out of 100: 65.82 / 100 — Grade B, Suggestion: HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 and sector comparison, financial growth, key metrics, analyst consensus and forecasts. These grades do not guarantee outcomes and are not financial advice.

Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly price of $8.81 USD versus the current $4.43 USD, implying an upside of 98.80%. The monthly projection is $4.83 USD, implying 9.03% upside. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.

BBAI stock: technicals, volume and trading signals

Key technicals: RSI 54.54, MACD histogram 0.03, and ADX 10.54, indicating no strong trend. ATR is 0.47 USD, showing elevated intraday swings. On-balance volume sits negative, reflecting distribution after earnings concerns.

Short-term support is near $4.00 USD and resistance sits close to the 50-day average at $5.91 USD. Traders should note the average daily volume of 74,351,127 shares when sizing positions.

BBAI stock: valuation, peers and sector context

Price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios are elevated for a sub-$5 stock: P/S TTM ~11.16x and P/B ~2.98x. Comparisons to Palantir (PLTR) and C3.ai show BigBear.ai trades with more execution risk and less cash generation.

Analyst coverage is mixed: consensus signals include one Buy and one Hold. The company is repositioning toward secure, regulated AI platforms, but that pivot must convert to predictable recurring revenue before multiples re-rate.

BBAI stock: risks, catalysts and investor action

Main risks are revenue timing on government programs, margin pressure during transition, and technical weakness below moving averages. Recent Q3 2025 revenue softness amplified those risks and prompted multiple sell-offs.

Catalysts to watch include the 2026-03-18 earnings announcement, Ask Sage revenue traction, new contract awards, and any guidance reduction or beat. Investors should size positions relative to volatility and monitor cash flow improvements.

Final Thoughts

BigBear.ai (BBAI) closed at $4.43 USD on 11 Feb 2026 after another volatile session. Near-term performance rests on execution of the Ask Sage integration, conversion of platform bookings to recurring revenue, and clearer margin progress. Meyka AI’s model projects $8.81 USD in one year, implying 98.80% upside versus today’s price, while the one-month model sits at $4.83 USD, implying 9.03% upside. These projections are model outputs, not guarantees. Given negative EPS -1.45 USD, negative cash flow per share, and elevated P/S, the stock carries execution risk. Our Meyka grade of 65.82 / 100 (B, HOLD) reflects a cautious stance: the AI thesis is intact, but investors should wait for consistent revenue conversion and margin signs before moving from watch to buy. For ongoing updates see BBAI on Meyka AI internal research and the latest coverage from MarketBeat and Nasdaq / Zacks.

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Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.