XRP USD is trading at $1.4028 as of February 28, 2026, down 3.49% over the past day. The cryptocurrency faces significant headwinds after declining 29.27% over the past month. Market data shows XRPUSD is testing critical support levels while technical indicators suggest oversold conditions. Understanding why XRP USD is dropping requires examining both technical signals and broader market sentiment. We’ll break down the current price action, technical setup, and what traders should monitor moving forward.

Why Is XRP USD Dropping Today?

XRP USD’s 3.49% daily decline reflects broader cryptocurrency weakness and technical deterioration. The token has lost 54.42% over the past six months, signaling sustained selling pressure from longer-term holders. Volume remains elevated at 4.39 billion daily, indicating active participation despite the downtrend. Market cap sits at $81.99 billion, showing XRP USD still commands significant liquidity despite recent losses.

The monthly decline of 29.27% suggests institutional and retail investors are reassessing positions. Price action has broken below the 50-day moving average at $1.69, a key technical level that previously provided support. The year-to-date loss of 27.92% reflects challenges in the broader crypto market and regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP USD’s classification and use cases.

XRP USD Technical Analysis

RSI at 39.46 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be easing soon. MACD shows a bearish signal with the line at -0.13 and histogram at 0.02, though the histogram is narrowing. ADX at 44.00 confirms a strong downtrend is in place, meaning lower prices remain the dominant direction. Bollinger Bands position XRP USD near the lower band at $1.23, with the middle band at $1.44 providing potential resistance.

Support levels are critical to monitor. The lower Bollinger Band at $1.23 represents strong technical support where buyers historically step in. The 200-day moving average at $2.29 remains far above current price, showing the longer-term trend is decidedly bearish. Stochastic indicators at 55.56 suggest momentum is neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, which could allow for consolidation before the next directional move.

XRP USD Price Forecast

Monthly Forecast: XRP USD is projected to reach $0.91, representing a 35.1% decline from current levels. This target suggests continued weakness if selling pressure persists. Quarterly Forecast: No specific quarterly target is available, indicating uncertainty in medium-term price direction. Yearly Forecast: By end of 2026, XRP USD could reach $3.94, implying a 180.6% rally from current prices if bullish catalysts emerge.

Three-year and five-year forecasts show $6.34 and $8.73 respectively, suggesting long-term recovery potential. These projections assume regulatory clarity and increased institutional adoption of XRP USD. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events. The wide range between monthly and yearly targets reflects high uncertainty in XRP USD’s near-term direction versus longer-term fundamentals.

Market Sentiment and Trading Activity

Trading volume at 4.39 billion daily represents 133.4% of the 30-day average, showing elevated participation during the decline. This high volume suggests conviction behind selling, not panic liquidation. Open interest and liquidation data would reveal whether leveraged traders are being forced out, but current volume metrics indicate organic selling pressure.

Market sentiment has shifted negative based on price action and technical deterioration. The 38.48% three-month decline has likely triggered stop-losses and margin calls. However, the RSI at 39.46 suggests we’re approaching levels where historically buyers have stepped in to accumulate. Relative volume at 0.96 shows today’s activity is slightly below average, indicating the selling may be moderating.

Support and Resistance Levels for XRP USD

The $1.23 level (lower Bollinger Band) represents the most critical support zone. A break below this level could trigger further selling toward $1.13, the 52-week low. The $1.44 middle Bollinger Band serves as immediate resistance if XRP USD bounces. The 50-day moving average at $1.69 is a secondary resistance level that must be reclaimed for a meaningful recovery.

Above $1.69, the $2.29 200-day moving average becomes the next major resistance. Year-to-date highs near $3.65 represent the ultimate resistance target if a sustained rally develops. Traders should watch for volume confirmation at each level—high volume on bounces suggests institutional buying, while low volume indicates weak recovery attempts.

What’s Next for XRP USD?

The technical setup suggests XRP USD is near a potential inflection point. RSI at 39.46 is approaching oversold territory, historically a zone where reversals occur. However, the strong ADX at 44.00 means the downtrend remains intact, and bounces could be sold into. Price action over the next few days will determine whether $1.23 support holds or breaks.

If XRP USD stabilizes above $1.44, a test of the 50-day moving average at $1.69 becomes likely. Conversely, a break below $1.23 could accelerate selling toward the $1.13 yearly low. Traders should monitor volume patterns and RSI divergences for clues about trend exhaustion. Regulatory news and broader crypto market sentiment will likely drive the next significant move in XRP USD.

Final Thoughts

XRP USD is trading at $1.4028 on February 28, 2026, down 3.49% daily and 29.27% monthly. Technical analysis reveals oversold RSI at 39.46 paired with a strong downtrend (ADX 44.00), creating conflicting signals. Support at $1.23 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $1.44 (middle band) define the near-term trading range. The monthly forecast of $0.91 suggests further downside risk, while yearly targets of $3.94 imply potential recovery if sentiment shifts. Market volume remains elevated at 4.39 billion daily, confirming active participation in the decline. Traders monitoring XRP USD should watch for RSI divergences and volume confirmation at key support levels. The wide gap between short-term and long-term forecasts reflects uncertainty about regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. Understanding these technical levels and market dynamics helps traders navigate XRP USD’s volatile price action without relying on predictions.

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Disclaimer:

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.