UNH Stock Today: February 23 — Weak 2026 Outlook Spurs Target Cuts
UnitedHealth’s UNH stock is under pressure after management signaled 2026 revenue could land roughly $15 billion below consensus. The weak UnitedHealth guidance has already sparked analyst price targets cuts from Mizuho and Truist, while a proposed near flat 2027 Medicare Advantage payment update adds policy risk. In recent trading, UNH stock changed hands near $282.34, down 2.64% on the day, with a 52-week range of $234.60 to $606.36. We explain what changed, how it affects valuation, and what to watch into April earnings.
2026 Outlook Miss and Target Cuts
UnitedHealth guidance for 2026 implies revenue roughly $15 billion below Street models, hinting at slower growth across UnitedHealthcare and Optum. UNH stock reflects worries that medical cost trend, utilization, and MA bid discipline could cap margin expansion. With consensus reset underway, investors will scrutinize mix, membership growth, and productivity gains to defend earnings quality and free cash flow next year.
Following the update, several firms reduced estimates and analyst price targets, including Mizuho and Truist, citing a tougher growth and policy backdrop. The de-rate pressures managed care peers as well. We saw downticks in earnings revisions and multiples, consistent with a valuation reset phase for UNH stock. Coverage details: source.
Medicare Advantage Update Adds Policy Overhang
The proposed near flat 2027 Medicare Advantage rates tighten the outlook for plan profitability. That makes pricing, benefits, and star ratings more important for retention and margins. Final rates typically follow later in spring, but the preliminary tone adds a headwind for UNH stock while investors assess bids and medical trend. Context on policy pressures: source.
Lower benchmark increases compress revenue per member, while medical trend and risk adjustment shape unit economics. If rates stay tight, operators often trim benefits, emphasize higher-acuity care management, and lean on admin efficiency. Optum capabilities can offset some pressure, yet mix, star ratings, and utilization still drive earnings variance. UNH stock will move on signs of disciplined bids without sacrificing longer-term enrollment growth.
Price Action and Technical Picture Today
UNH stock recently closed at $282.34, down 2.64%, after trading between $281.67 and $291.77. Shares sit below the 50-day ($317.82) and 200-day ($317.98) averages. RSI is 39.50, showing weak momentum, while MACD remains negative and ADX at 38.62 signals a strong trend. Bollinger mid-band is $287.17, with lower band support near $254.53 and upper resistance around $319.81.
Average True Range is 9.23, pointing to elevated day-to-day swings. Year to date, UNH stock is down 16.04% and off 38.80% over 12 months. Valuation reads 21.36x TTM EPS, with a 3.09% dividend yield and 65.66% payout ratio. OBV trends negative, while MFI at 48.51 is neutral. We watch the $274–$282 zone for potential base-building if volatility cools.
Valuation, Earnings, and How We’d Position
Despite sentiment pressure, fundamentals remain sizable: price-to-sales 0.57, EV/EBITDA 13.28, and free cash flow yield about 6.28%. Debt-to-equity is 0.78 with a 0.79 current ratio. Dividend per share is $8.73. The gap between UnitedHealth guidance and consensus drives the near-term multiple, but durable cash flow and Optum scale still support long-run value, if MA profitability stabilizes.
Next earnings are scheduled for April 16, 2026. Key watch items: updated 2026 revenue cadence, final 2027 Medicare Advantage rates, utilization, and star rating metrics. Street stance shows 39 Buy, 5 Hold, 2 Sell, with a 3.00 consensus. Meyka system signals are mixed: Stock Grade A (Buy suggestion) but Company Rating B with a Neutral call on 2026-02-23. We favor staged entries on weakness.
Final Thoughts
UNH stock sits at a reset point. Management’s 2026 revenue outlook trails consensus by roughly $15 billion, and a near flat 2027 Medicare Advantage update tightens plan economics. That combination explains price target cuts and the recent technical breakdown below key moving averages. We would keep a close eye on the $274–$282 range, the Bollinger mid-band near $287, and any shift in utilization commentary. Into April 16 earnings, the most important signals will be updated revenue cadence, MA bids, medical cost trend, and star ratings. For diversified portfolios, we prefer scaling in rather than a full-size buy, with risk controls while policy and estimate uncertainty clears.
FAQs
Why is UNH stock down today?
Shares fell as investors reacted to UnitedHealth guidance that pegs 2026 revenue about $15 billion below Street expectations, plus a proposed near flat 2027 Medicare Advantage rate update. Those factors pressured estimates and valuation multiples, prompting price target cuts from major brokers and stoking concerns about MA profitability and utilization trends.
What did UnitedHealth guidance imply for 2026?
Management indicated 2026 revenue could be roughly $15 billion below consensus. That suggests slower growth and tighter margins across core businesses, pending clarity on medical cost trend, membership mix, and MA bids. Investors will look for levers in Optum efficiency and benefit design to protect earnings and free cash flow next year.
How do Medicare Advantage rates affect UnitedHealth?
Medicare Advantage rates influence revenue per member. A near flat 2027 update limits pricing power and puts more weight on star ratings, risk adjustment, and care management to defend margins. If rates stay tight, plans may trim benefits or shift mix to maintain profitability, which can weigh on growth and valuation.
Is UNH stock a buy after the selloff?
It depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. Valuation sits near 21x TTM EPS with a 3.09% dividend yield and strong cash generation. However, estimate risk remains elevated until final 2027 MA rates and April results. We prefer staged entries on weakness with clear stops while monitoring utilization and margin signals.
When is UnitedHealth’s next earnings date?
UnitedHealth is scheduled to report on April 16, 2026. Investors should watch 2026 revenue cadence, MA bid assumptions, medical cost trend, and star ratings updates. Any shift in guidance or policy tone could move UNH stock, particularly given recent target cuts and the ongoing valuation reset.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.