U11.SI Stock Today: February 25 – Q4 Profit Slips, 2026 Fee Guidance Cut
The UOB share price came under pressure on 25 Feb as Q4 2025 net profit slipped 7% on softer net interest margin. Management also trimmed its 2026 fee growth outlook to high single digits. We explain what this means for Singapore investors watching shares of U11.SI. Near-term drivers include the NIM path, fee momentum from trade and wealth, and credit costs in Greater China and US commercial real estate. We also review valuation, dividends, and key technical levels that can guide entries and risk control.
Today’s Moves and Key Headlines
The UOB share price fell after the bank reported a 7% year-on-year decline in Q4 2025 net profit and reduced its 2026 fee-income guidance. Management stayed constructive on ASEAN trade but flagged near-term NIM softness. Details are in Business Times and CNA coverage: UOB upbeat on Asean trade and Q4 net profit slips 7%. We think guidance clarity drove today’s price action.
Management now expects high single-digit fee growth in 2026, lower than earlier hopes. The mix points to steadier contributions from trade finance and wealth, with market-sensitive flows likely to stay choppy. For the UOB share price, sustained quarterly progress in fees could offset modest NIM drift. We will track quarterly card, wealth, and trade income to confirm the new trajectory.
Income investors focus on stability. TTM dividend per share is S$2.27, implying a 5.9% yield on prices near S$37, and a payout ratio around 65%. That supports the UOB share price on dips, in our view. Balance sheet quality and organic capital generation remain the key enablers for dividends, while risk-weighted asset growth and credit costs will shape headroom for any extras.
Fundamentals and Valuation
Q4 pressure came from a softer net interest margin, while costs stayed controlled. On trailing numbers, EPS is S$3.50 and return on equity is about 11.9%. These point to resilient core profitability despite NIM headwinds. For the UOB share price, incremental moves in asset yields, funding costs, and fee recovery will matter more than one quarter’s dip.
U11.SI stock trades around 10.6x TTM earnings and 1.28x book value per share of S$30.40, with a TTM dividend yield near 5.9%. This sits close to long-run averages for a high-quality Singapore bank. Our system rates UOB B+ with a Neutral stance as of 23 Feb 2026. We see valuation as reasonable if NIM stabilises and fees improve.
Investors are watching credit-cost hotspots tied to Greater China exposures and US commercial real estate. A mild uptick in non-performing loans is manageable, but any sharp stress would weigh on the UOB share price. We also track the MAS policy path and SORA trends since faster-than-expected rate cuts could compress NIM before loan growth and fees fully offset.
Outlook for 2026: What to Watch
NIM will likely drift lower if global and local rates ease through 2026. Funding costs may reprice faster than asset yields, especially on mortgages and high-quality corporate loans. The UOB share price tends to react to every NIM data point, so quarterly disclosure on asset-yield resilience and deposit mix will be key. We look for signs that deposit competition is cooling.
Trade and wealth management should anchor fee momentum. ASEAN trade flows can lift cash management, FX, and trade finance, while steadier markets support advisory and AUM-linked revenues. If wealth flows improve with risk sentiment, the UOB share price could re-rate on a stronger fee mix. Card and transaction volumes in Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia are useful high-frequency checks.
Through-cycle provisioning remains a priority. We will watch specific provisions tied to China-related corporates and US CRE office exposure. Healthy coverage ratios and secured collateral can limit downside. Any guidance on 2026 credit-cost ranges will shape earnings confidence. Clear evidence of stabilising impairments would be supportive for the UOB share price over the next few quarters.
Technical Picture and Levels
Trend strength is elevated with ADX at 53.8 and RSI near 60.8, while MACD’s histogram is slightly negative. This mix suggests an uptrend that is pausing. For the UOB share price, a positive MACD crossover would be a cleaner signal. Money Flow Index at 72.5 indicates strong buying interest, so pullbacks may find dip demand if volume stays constructive.
Bollinger Bands point to the middle band around S$38.68 and the lower band near S$38.05. Keltner lower channel sits around S$37.40, which aligns with first support. Upper references cluster near S$39.31. Average True Range is about S$0.47, implying room for daily swings. Traders can size positions so a typical ATR move does not violate stop levels.
Our models point to S$37.52 over one month, S$35.35 over a quarter, and S$38.32 over a year. Longer projections reach S$41.48 in three years and S$44.60 in five years. These are directional, not promises. For the UOB share price, beats on NIM and fees could skew outcomes higher, while credit shocks or faster rate cuts would skew lower.
Final Thoughts
UOB’s mixed print resets expectations. A 7% Q4 profit decline and trimmed 2026 fee guidance explain today’s weakness, but core profitability, a near 6% trailing dividend yield, and reasonable valuation offer support. Near term, we would watch three items each quarter: the NIM path, fee momentum from trade and wealth, and any credit-cost surprises in Greater China and US CRE. Technically, support sits around S$37.40 to S$38.05, with resistance near S$39.31. For long-only investors, staged entries on pullbacks with stops below support can balance risk. For traders, wait for a fresh MACD turn and volume confirmation before chasing strength. Always size positions to ATR and stay data-driven.
FAQs
Why did the UOB share price fall today?
Shares reacted to Q4 2025 profit falling 7% and a cut to 2026 fee growth guidance to high single digits. Investors also weighed softer net interest margin trends and ongoing credit-cost risks tied to Greater China and US commercial real estate. Together, these updates trimmed near-term earnings confidence, prompting a reset in expectations and a lower open.
Is U11.SI stock attractive for dividends now?
On trailing numbers, DPS is about S$2.27 and the yield is near 5.9% at prices around S$37. That is competitive among Singapore banks. Sustainability depends on earnings, credit costs, and capital needs. If NIM stabilises and fee income improves through 2026, dividend support should remain intact, though special payouts are less certain.
What key risks could pressure the UOB share price in 2026?
The main risks are faster NIM compression if rates fall quickly, weaker-than-expected fee recovery from wealth or trade, and higher credit costs in Greater China or US commercial real estate. A spike in provisions or deposit competition would hurt margins. Any of these could slow earnings and weigh on sentiment.
What price levels should traders watch this week?
We are watching support around S$38.05 to S$37.40 from Bollinger and Keltner references, and resistance near S$39.31. ATR is about S$0.47, so allow for typical daily swings when setting stops. A positive MACD crossover with rising volume would be constructive. A break below S$37.40 would argue for patience.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.