TD.TO Stock Today: Q1 Profit Jumps, Record Adjusted EPS Beat — February 27
TD Bank earnings took centre stage today as The Toronto-Dominion Bank posted Q1 adjusted EPS of C$2.44, topping the C$2.26 consensus. Management reported a 45% profit jump on broad-based strength and easing credit-loss provisions, with capital markets revenue a key driver. TD also booked a final C$200 million restructuring charge tied to AML remediation while advancing cost optimizations. Shares of TD.TO recently traded at C$135.14, near a 52-week high of C$135.88, suggesting confidence in the beat and outlook for Canada’s second-largest bank.
Q1 Beat: Profit Soars, EPS Sets Record
TD Bank earnings beat expectations with adjusted EPS of C$2.44 versus C$2.26 expected, as Toronto-Dominion profit rose 45% year over year. Management cited broad-based strength, with capital markets revenue surging and retail banking steady. Credit performance improved from last year. Coverage noted the bank’s cost focus and better trading income supporting results source.
Credit-loss provisions eased from last year, helping margins and sentiment. TD recorded a final C$200 million restructuring charge related to AML remediation, clearing a known overhang while continuing cost optimizations. This setup could support near-term efficiency and returns if credit trends remain stable source.
We read TD Q1 results as quality-driven: stronger capital markets fees, improved credit, and disciplined expenses. The final AML-related charge reduces uncertainty, while management’s push on costs can protect margins. For Canadian investors, the mix suggests resilient earnings power even if rate cuts compress net interest income later in 2026.
Stock Reaction and Key Levels
Shares changed hands around C$135.14, up 1.64% on the day, within a C$132.71–C$135.88 range and touching a 52-week high at C$135.88. Momentum is positive: RSI 63.82, MACD above signal. Price sits near Bollinger upper band (C$134.81), a sign of strength after TD Bank earnings, though short-term pullbacks can follow overbought signals.
The stock trades above its 50-day (C$129.54) and 200-day (C$110.85) averages, confirming an uptrend. ADX at 17.87 signals no dominant trend, while ATR at 2.06 points to moderate daily swings. Money Flow Index at 62.98 leans bullish. Overall, technicals suggest buyers in control, but consolidation near highs is common.
Key dates and drivers: next earnings on May 20, 2026; updates on credit-loss provisions; capital markets activity; and expense run-rate after restructuring. Meyka’s fair-value path projects C$143.13 over the next quarter and C$155.86 over 12 months, with monthly mean at C$130.80. Sustained closes above C$136 could target the quarterly model path.
Valuation, Dividend, and Risks
At C$135.14, TD trades at 11.7x TTM EPS (C$11.55) and 1.80x book (C$75.27 per share), with price-to-sales of 1.96 and an earnings yield of 8.94%. These levels look reasonable for a diversified Canadian bank with improving results. After TD Bank earnings, investors often reassess whether the multiple can expand if cost saves stick.
TD’s dividend yield sits near 3.13% with a 37.31% payout ratio, leaving room for reinvestment and potential future increases. Tangible book is C$62.09 per share. Debt-to-equity is 5.19, which is typical for banks given deposit funding and leverage rules. Stability in provisions should support capital flexibility and steady dividends.
Meyka Stock Grade: B+ (BUY). We like the stronger fee mix, easing provisions, and cost discipline highlighted in TD Bank earnings. Key risks: softer loan growth if rate cuts arrive faster than expected, trading income volatility, and ongoing compliance investments even after the final C$200 million AML charge. Watch margin trends and expense execution closely.
Final Thoughts
TD Bank earnings delivered a clean beat: adjusted EPS of C$2.44, a 45% profit jump, easing credit-loss provisions, and firm capital markets revenue. The final C$200 million AML-related charge reduces uncertainty, while cost optimizations can defend margins. Technically, shares trade near a 52-week high and above key moving averages, signaling strong sentiment.
For Canadian investors, the playbook is clear: monitor provisions, capital markets fees, and expense run-rate into May 20. A stable credit backdrop and disciplined costs could support further multiple upside. If the stock consolidates near highs, staged entries may help manage risk. Maintain focus on dividend sustainability and execution against cost targets.
FAQs
What drove TD’s Q1 earnings beat?
Adjusted EPS reached C$2.44 versus C$2.26 expected, with profit up 45%. Stronger capital markets revenue, steady retail banking, and easing credit-loss provisions were key. Management also booked a final C$200 million AML-related restructuring charge while pushing cost optimizations, which should support margins. Coverage from Canadian outlets highlighted broad-based strength across units.
How did the stock react to TD Bank earnings?
Shares recently traded at C$135.14, up 1.64%, within a C$132.71–C$135.88 range and near a 52-week high of C$135.88. Momentum readings (RSI 63.82, positive MACD) are supportive. Price sits above the 50-day and 200-day averages, showing buyers in control, though short-term consolidation near highs is common.
Is TD’s dividend secure after TD Q1 results?
The dividend yield is about 3.13% with a payout ratio near 37%, which leaves room for reinvestment and increases if earnings remain solid. Easing provisions and cost controls support cash generation. Investors should still track credit trends and expense run-rate through the next quarter to confirm stability.
What are the key risks to monitor now?
Watch credit-loss provisions if the economy slows, potential pressure on net interest margins if rates decline, and volatility in trading income. Even with the final C$200 million AML charge booked, ongoing compliance investments may continue. Execution on cost optimizations will be crucial to sustain margins and earnings quality.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.