Stock Rise: Futures Up Even as Israel-Iran Attacks Persist
The Stock rises even while the world watches a growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Israel carried out a major airstrike on June 13. Iran fired back with missiles and drones. It sounds like the kind of news that would shake markets. But instead, we’re seeing stock rise.
That feels strange, doesn’t it? War usually means panic. Prices fall. Oil jumps. Gold climbs. But this time, the market is holding strong. Why?
Let’s talk about what’s happening in the markets right now. We’ll look at what’s pushing stock futures up, how investors are reacting, and what risks are still on the table.
Market Snapshot
On Monday morning, S&P 500 futures rose around 0.2%. Nasdaq and Dow futures also edged higher.
Oil prices remain hot. Brent hovers near $76-77/barrel after a sharp 411% jump. Gold is near $3,400 per ounce, with investors seeking safety.
VIX, the fear index, hit a three-week high near 20 as traders eye risk. Tech and energy sectors are leading futures gains. Airlines and travel remain weak.
Geopolitical Context: Israel-Iran Tensions
On June 13, Israel launched a large airstrike targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities.
Iran responded with Operation True Promise III, 150+ missiles and 100+ drones aimed at Israel. They also hit energy sites in Israel and Iran, including gas fields and refineries.
A big worry: disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. It handles a third of the global oil trade.
Why the Stock Rise?
- Markets already priced in the news. Conflicts like this often spark fear first, then calm. The IMF notes markets tend to rebound in a month if disruptions don’t last.
- Oil supply still flows. Prices rose sharply, but traffic hasn’t stopped. No major stoppage of the Strait or oil ports yet.
- Strong U.S. economic data. Sales and job reports are steady. That boosts the odds of a Fed rate hold or cut later this year.
- Tech earnings are solid. Big tech firms reported better-than-expected numbers. That fuels market optimism.
- Balanced risk moves. Investors are buying safe gold and bonds, but also stocks. That’s a sign of cautious confidence.
Sector & Stock Rise Reactions
- Energy: Crude prices rose ~10%, lifting U.S. oil giants like Exxon and Occidental.
- Defense: Stocks such as RTX, Lockheed Martin, and L3 Harris jumped 3-5% on the conflict news.
- Airlines: Airline stocks struggled as rising fuel prices and safety concerns hurt travel demand. Major carriers like Delta, United, American, and Carnival saw their shares fall between 3% and 5%.
- Tech: Tech stocks took a hit on Friday but quickly recovered by Monday. The sector remains strong and continues to push the market forward with steady investor interest.
Risks Ahead
- A full blockade of Hormuz or new strikes on shipping could hit supply and markets hard.
- If oil prices rise above $80-90, it could hurt global growth and push prices higher. That may make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
- If energy pushes inflation up, rate cuts may be delayed. That would hurt equities.
- VIX spiked to 20. Watch for the next move.
- Nations like India, Brazil, and Australia feel the pinch as currencies and bonds come under stress.
Final Thoughts
Markets surprised us with a stock rise. Despite war and oil spikes, stock futures are up. That shows resilience.
Still, risk is real. A disruption of oil flow or fresh strikes could change the story fast. We’ll keep watch on oil, the Fed, and any new conflict moves. Stay calm but alert. Keep your portfolio balanced. And be ready for change.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Nasdaq futures are deals that predict how Nasdaq stocks might perform later. They let traders agree on prices now for buying or selling in the future.
Futures help traders guess price changes and earn profits quickly. They also protect big portfolios from sudden losses when markets move in the wrong direction.
Dow Jones futures are trading contracts based on the Dow Jones index. They give a sneak peek at how the stock market may act before opening time.
Nasdaq futures trade nearly all day, five days a week. They stop briefly for a reset, but are mostly open around the clock for global traders
Disclaimer:
This content is made for learning only. It is not meant to give financial advice. Always check the facts yourself. Financial decisions need detailed research.