PGY.AX Pilot Energy (ASX) falls 25% to A$0.003 on 23 Feb 2026: liquidity and outlook
PGY.AX stock dropped 25.00% to A$0.003 at market close on 23 Feb 2026, making it one of the ASX top losers today. The fall happened on low liquidity — volume was 298000.00 versus an average of 7,055,622.00 — and came without a clear company announcement. We examine why Pilot Energy Limited (PGY.AX) underperformed the Energy sector, review key metrics including EPS -0.01 and market cap A$6,512,790.00, and set a short-term forecast and watchlist for traders.
Price action and drivers for PGY.AX stock
PGY.AX stock closed at A$0.003 on 23 Feb 2026, down -25.00% from yesterday. One immediate driver was thin trading: volume was 298000.00 compared with an average volume of 7,055,622.00, producing a relative volume of 0.04. The Energy sector on ASX moved +3.41% on the day, so Pilot Energy’s drop appears idiosyncratic rather than sector-driven. This suggests short-term selling pressure from holders or a liquidity gap rather than broad market repositioning.
Financials and valuation: key ratios and red flags
Pilot Energy Limited (PGY.AX) shows strained fundamentals. EPS is -0.01 and trailing P/E is -0.30, reflecting losses. Market cap stands at A$6,512,790.00 with 2,170,930,000.00 shares outstanding. The company has a low current ratio 0.13, debt to equity 1.84, and book value per share A$0.00532. These metrics point to liquidity pressure and leverage that investors should factor into any PGY.AX investment decision.
Technical and trading metrics for PGY.AX stock
Technicals are mixed. The 50-day average price is A$0.00435 and the 200-day average is A$0.00653, both above the current price, indicating a downtrend. Momentum indicators show RSI 51.97, ADX 53.06 (strong trend), and MFI 11.50 (oversold). On tiny volume, price moves can overstate conviction; the low liquidity increases volatility and execution risk for traders buying or selling PGY.AX.
Meyka AI rates PGY.AX with a score out of 100
Meyka AI rates PGY.AX with a score out of 100: 62.84 (Grade B, suggestion HOLD). This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. The company rating data from external screens offers a conflicting view — a third-party snapshot lists a C- / Strong Sell on 18 Feb 2026 — so our score reflects balanced weight on model signals, not a buy recommendation.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects short-term price for PGY.AX stock
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$0.00400 over the next 12 months for PGY.AX stock, implying an upside of +33.33% versus the current A$0.003. This forecast is model-based and assumes modest operational progress and improved liquidity. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. Scenario risk: a downside case to A$0.00100 would imply -66.67% if capital access or exploration setbacks occur.
Risks, catalysts and what to watch next for PGY.AX
Key risks include continued low liquidity, negative operating cash flow per share -0.00291, rising debt, and limited near-term production catalysts. Catalysts that could revive the stock are new farm-in agreements, positive exploration updates in EP416/EP480 permits, or concrete progress on blue hydrogen projects. Watch trading volume, company announcements, and the next earnings date (announced 27 Apr 2026) for material flow that could change price direction.
Final Thoughts
PGY.AX stock was a top loser on 23 Feb 2026 after a -25.00% drop to A$0.003, driven largely by thin liquidity rather than sector weakness. Fundamental indicators show stress: negative EPS -0.01, low current ratio 0.13, and substantial leverage with debt to equity 1.84. Meyka AI rates PGY.AX with a 62.84/100 (Grade B, HOLD) and our model projects A$0.00400, implying a +33.33% upside from current levels under a base-case recovery. Traders should treat intraday moves cautiously because average volume is 7,055,622.00 and today’s volume was only 298000.00, increasing execution risk. Key triggers that could alter the outlook are any firm exploration success, a capital raise with clear use of proceeds, or progress on Pilot Energy’s blue hydrogen initiatives. For now, PGY.AX looks speculative: the Meyka forecast gives a modest recovery scenario, but downside remains if liquidity or funding conditions deteriorate. Use tight risk controls and monitor official announcements and trading volume closely. For data and alerts on PGY.AX see the Meyka AI stock page PGY.AX on Meyka.
FAQs
Why did PGY.AX stock drop 25% today?
The 25.00% drop on 23 Feb 2026 coincided with very low trading volume (298000.00). There was no clear company announcement; the move likely reflects liquidity-driven selling and short-term order flow rather than sector weakness.
What is Meyka AI’s forecast for PGY.AX stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$0.00400 over 12 months for PGY.AX stock, implying +33.33% upside versus A$0.003. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Is PGY.AX a buy after the drop?
Given negative EPS, low current ratio, and high leverage, PGY.AX is high risk. Meyka AI gives Grade B (HOLD). Investors should wait for clear catalysts or improved liquidity before buying.
What catalysts could change PGY.AX’s outlook?
Positive exploration results in EP416/EP480, new farm-in partners, progress on blue hydrogen projects, or a successful capital raise would be meaningful catalysts for PGY.AX stock.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.