NVDA Stock Today: Shares Fall After Record Q4, $78B Guide – February 26
NVDA stock fell today even after Nvidia posted record Q4 revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to about $78B. The market is weighing how long AI demand can run and what excluded China compute means for future sales. For Swiss investors, USD exposure and timing around order cycles matter. Below, we explain what drove the reaction, where data center revenue stands, how hyperscaler capex shapes the outlook, and what today’s price and technicals signal for portfolios in Switzerland.
Why shares fell after a blockbuster quarter
Nvidia topped expectations with Q4 revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to roughly $78B, pointing to sustained AI demand. Data Center revenue rose 75% year over year, while networking jumped 263%, reflecting high-speed interconnect needs. Management said guidance excludes China compute. Coverage highlighted the upside surprise and caution around durability source.
Despite the beat, investors questioned the pace of future orders, the impact of export rules, and how fast customers can deploy new capacity. Guidance excluding China signals reliance on US and EMEA hyperscalers. Some profit taking also followed a strong year-to-date run. Media noted strong results that did not fully reassure on longevity source.
NVDA stock trades in USD on Nasdaq, so Swiss buyers face USD/CHF currency swings on returns. Consider whether to hedge FX and how position size fits your risk. Also track order visibility, supply lead times, and any signs of deferred deliveries. For CHF-based portfolios, staged entries around support levels can reduce timing risk while maintaining exposure to core AI infrastructure.
Data center engine and hyperscaler capex watch
The data center platform remains the growth pillar, with revenue up 75% year over year and networking up 263%. That mix shows demand for end-to-end compute plus high-speed networking to scale AI training and inference. Watch procurement cadence, shipment linearity within the quarter, and any commentary on delivery prioritization among top cloud customers.
Hyperscaler capex plans will steer revenue this year. Budgets from leading clouds influence accelerator orders, networking buildouts, and software attach. Guidance excluding China increases focus on US and European spending lanes. For NVDA stock, any sign of capex moderation, project delays, or shifts to internal silicon could sway multiples more than near-term unit volumes.
Key markers for the next few weeks include updated capacity plans from large clouds, order backlogs, and networking supply. Also monitor competitive launches and customer adoption timelines. Swiss investors should watch USD funding costs, broker FX spreads, and how any capex changes translate into quarterly revenue recognition rather than relying only on headlines.
NVDA stock today: price, valuation, and technicals
NVDA stock trades at $184.89, down 5.49% today, with a day range of $184.32 to $194.21 and market cap near $4.50T. The 50-day average is $184.80 versus a 200-day at $173.19. EPS is $4.05 and the P/E is 45.65. Volume stands at 351.10M versus a 171.34M average, signaling elevated activity around the print.
RSI sits at 61.29 while MACD remains positive. ADX at 11.13 suggests no strong trend. Bollinger Bands center near 187.08, with upper at 198.83 and lower at 175.33. CCI of 141.69 and Stoch %K at 92.32 flag overbought risk. Watch $175–$187 as near support and $199–$212 as resistance.
Analyst consensus is 4.00 (Buy) with 3 Strong Buys, 67 Buys, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sells. Next earnings is scheduled for 20 May 2026. Dividend yield is about 0.02% TTM. Meyka Stock Grade is A (82.68), reflecting strong growth and profitability but a premium multiple that keeps sensitivity high to capex headlines.
Portfolio implications for Swiss investors
For CHF-based accounts, NVDA stock returns will swing with USD/CHF. Decide if you want FX hedging, especially for shorter horizons. Keep position sizes aligned with volatility: ATR is 5.84, and the 1-year range is $86.62 to $212.19. Consider scaling around technical levels and using stop-loss rules to protect capital.
Upside: hyperscaler capex holds, networking stays tight, and software monetization lifts margins. Base case: growth normalizes but stays above peers. Downside: order digestion, export constraints, or competitive adoption push a pause. Weigh each path against current valuation and your risk budget before adding to or trimming NVDA stock.
Swiss investors can buy Nasdaq-listed shares via local brokers and banks. Many global equity and semiconductor ETFs also hold NVDA, offering diversified exposure. Compare fees, FX costs, and tax treatment. Revisit allocations before major product cycles or earnings dates, and ensure NVDA stock fits your broader technology weight and liquidity needs.
Final Thoughts
Nvidia delivered a standout quarter, guided even higher, and still saw NVDA stock slip as the market tested how durable AI demand and hyperscaler budgets will be without China compute. For Swiss investors, the core tasks are simple: track cloud capex signals, monitor data center order visibility and networking supply, and respect technical levels while sizing around USD/CHF risk. Valuation remains rich, so news flow on deployments and competitive responses can move the shares quickly. A staged approach, periodic rebalancing, and attention to the next earnings date on 20 May 2026 can help manage timing. Stay focused on fundamentals that truly drive multi-quarter cash flows.
FAQs
Why did NVDA stock fall after strong Nvidia earnings?
Shares pulled back because investors questioned the durability of AI spending, guidance excluding China compute, and the pace of future orders. After a strong run, some took profits. Markets now want more proof that hyperscaler capex will stay high and that supply chains and deployments can support another leg of growth.
What matters most for Nvidia’s data center revenue in 2026?
Hyperscaler capex plans, networking availability, and customer deployment timelines. Order visibility, backlog quality, and any shift toward in-house silicon also matter. Watch management updates on lead times and delivery patterns, plus competitive launches that could influence mix, margins, and the trajectory for both training and inference workloads.
How should Swiss investors think about currency when buying NVDA stock?
NVDA trades in USD, so CHF returns include USD/CHF moves. Consider whether to hedge FX, especially for short holding periods. Compare broker FX spreads and product choices. A diversified ETF may reduce single-name and FX concentration, but direct shares offer pure exposure. Align currency decisions with your risk tolerance.
What are key technical levels and signals to watch now?
Bollinger center near $187, support around $175–$187, and resistance near $199–$212. RSI at 61 and overbought oscillators suggest potential consolidation. ADX is low, so trend strength is modest. Elevated volume around earnings can create quick reversals, so plan entries and exits rather than chasing breakouts.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.