NVDA Stock Today: Record Q4, $78B Q1 Guide Ex-China – February 26

NVDA stock is in focus after Nvidia posted record Q4 revenue of $68.1B and data center revenue of $62.3B, then guided Q1 FY27 revenue to about $78B while excluding China data center sales. That signals strong AI compute demand from cloud and enterprise customers. For Canadian investors, the beat-and-raise anchors AI capex visibility and supports premium valuation. We review Nvidia earnings, the Q1 guidance 78B, valuation, and practical steps to position portfolios in Canada.

Record Q4 and what powered the upside

Nvidia’s data center revenue hit $62.3B in Q4, up 75% year over year, driven by accelerated computing demand from cloud providers and enterprises building AI models. The scale of this growth confirms that AI budgets remain intact despite macro noise. The company’s update reinforces that inference and training workloads are expanding together. See the official release for details: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026.

Nvidia’s compute platforms, high-speed networking, and enterprise AI software continued to lift average deal sizes and recurring revenue potential. Customers are deploying full stacks to reduce time to value, a trend that tightens Nvidia’s ecosystem. For NVDA stock, that mix supports margins and reduces cyclicality versus component-only sales, a key point for long-term holders watching durability through supply cycles.

Q1 guide: $78B ex-China and what it implies

Management guided Q1 FY27 revenue to about $78B while excluding China data center sales. That implies robust demand across the United States, Europe, and other regions. It also suggests hyperscalers and large enterprises are still accelerating AI deployments. Market reaction reflected renewed confidence in AI spending momentum: Tech stocks today: Nvidia stock rises as guidance signals AI boom alive and well.

The guide indicates clearer line of sight on orders and deliveries into the first half of FY27. Hyperscaler and enterprise pipelines appear well funded, with networking and systems attach sustaining blended pricing. For NVDA stock, this improves revenue quality, supports forward estimates, and reduces near-term downside risk. The stance also cushions regional policy shifts, since growth is coming from a wider customer base outside China.

Valuation, technicals, and risks to watch

NVDA stock trades on premium metrics, including a TTM P/E near 48.31 and price-to-sales around 25.63. Net margin sits near 53% on Meyka data, reflecting strong mix and scale. Upside depends on data center revenue growth, continued supply availability, and software traction. Key risks include export controls, potential competition in accelerators and networking, and any delay in next-generation product ramps.

Near-term technicals are constructive: RSI is 61, MACD is positive, and the Bollinger middle band sits near 187, with the upper band near 199. ADX around 11 suggests a weak overall trend, so breakouts may need volume confirmation. For NVDA stock, sustained closes above recent upper bands would strengthen momentum, while dips toward the middle band could offer better entries for long-term buyers.

What Canadian investors can do now

We suggest rechecking position size, time horizon, and currency exposure. Results and guidance are reported in USD, so Canadians face an FX layer on returns. CAD-hedged vehicles can reduce currency swings, while unhedged options may benefit if the U.S. dollar rises. NVDA stock can fit growth sleeves, but concentration risk argues for staggered entries rather than a single purchase date.

Canadians can buy U.S.-listed shares directly or use Canadian-listed Nasdaq-100 ETFs, available in CAD-hedged and unhedged versions. Blending single-name exposure with diversified tech ETFs can smooth volatility. Pairing NVDA stock with cash-flowing tech leaders or broad market funds can balance risk. Revisit rebalancing rules so outsized winners do not dominate total portfolio risk over time.

Final Thoughts

Nvidia’s record Q4 revenue of $68.1B and data center revenue of $62.3B, followed by Q1 guidance near $78B ex-China, reinforces a strong AI spending cycle. For NVDA stock, the beat-and-raise improves earnings visibility and supports premium valuation, but execution must stay tight. On fundamentals, analysts skew positive, and Meyka’s stock grade is A with a score of 82.7 suggesting Buy. Technicals look supportive, though the broader trend needs confirmation. Canadians should consider FX, position sizing, and whether to use single-name shares or Nasdaq-100 ETFs. With the next earnings slated for May 20, 2026 (UTC), plan entries, monitor supply and networking updates, and keep risk controls active.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.