NVDA Stock Today: Record Beat, $78B Guide; China Rival Risk – February 26
Nvidia stock is in focus after a record quarter: revenue rose 73% to $68B with guidance set at $78B for the current quarter. Shares briefly topped $200 before easing as management cited long-term competitive pressure from Chinese rivals and gave limited detail on guidance drivers. For Swiss investors, the key debate is whether AI chips demand and data center growth can offset rising competition. We break down the numbers, risks, and today’s trading setup for ticker NVDA.
Blowout results and guidance: what stands out
Nvidia earnings delivered a 73% revenue jump to $68B, with the company guiding $78B next quarter, both ahead of expectations. The stock trades at $192.85 today, with a day range of $187.40 to $193.77 and a 52-week high of $212.19. Market cap sits near $4.76T, EPS is 4.03, and the PE is 48.54. Volume of 175.1M exceeds the 171.3M average.
Management offered limited detail on the mix behind the $78B guide, leaving investors to parse data center versus non-data center contributions. The strong top-line suggests continued acceleration in AI systems, but uncertainty on product and regional skew keeps expectations in check. The company reported on 25 February (UTC), aligning with today’s focus session for follow-through interest and forecast updates.
Sustained demand from hyperscalers, sovereign AI builds, and enterprise pilots supports the outlook. Hardware pull-through into networking, HBM memory, and systems integration remains a key tailwind. Near term, backlog and procurement cycles appear healthy, while longer-term growth depends on software adoption and recurring spend. Swiss allocators will watch European cloud expansion and local AI workloads that could extend data center growth.
What Swiss investors should watch today
Nvidia stock trades in USD on Nasdaq. Swiss investors face USD/CHF currency exposure and brokerage FX costs when buying. Some CHF-hedged ETPs on SIX can reduce FX swings, though fees vary. Check total cost: FX spread, stamp duty, and custody. For CHF-based portfolios, consider position sizing that accounts for both equity and currency volatility.
Stronger AI cycles can benefit Swiss-listed chip equipment suppliers and data center infrastructure firms via Europe’s capex plans. Watch capital investment updates from regional cloud providers. Media in Switzerland and Germany highlighted Nvidia’s record results and sector impact, underscoring AI leadership and sensitivity to competition source source.
Key levels include $187.08 (Bollinger mid) and $198.83 (upper band). RSI is 61.29; ADX at 11.13 signals no strong trend. ATR of 5.84 frames typical daily swings. Positive MACD (1.96 vs 0.99) supports momentum, while Stoch %K at 92.32 suggests overbought. Watch volume versus the 171.3M average for confirmation.
Key risks: China competition and supply visibility
Management flagged long-term pressure from Chinese competitors. Export controls and domestic substitution in China could cap premium GPU share. Pricing and node transitions may tighten margins over time. Investors should track China AI spend, domestic accelerator progress, and any changes in US restrictions that could redirect demand or affect product roadmaps.
High HBM memory needs and advanced packaging can constrain shipments if supply tightens. While backlog looks solid, component bottlenecks can shift revenue timing. Inventory and receivables trends remain healthy, but monitor lead times and networking availability. Any slippage in systems integration could move quarterly revenue, even if full-year demand stays firm.
Gross and operating margins are strong, supported by premium pricing and scale. However, a higher mix of lower-priced accelerators, competitive discounting, or higher input costs could compress profitability. Software contribution may cushion margins over time. Investors should watch margin commentary, pricing discipline, and product mix across data center, enterprise, and automotive.
Valuation, technicals, and scenarios for Nvidia stock
At $192.85 with a PE of 48.54 and price-to-sales near 25.63, Nvidia stock embeds strong growth expectations. Analyst consensus skews bullish: 67 Buy, 3 Strong Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell (consensus 4.00). Meyka’s stock grade is A (82.68) with a BUY suggestion. The debate is whether $78B guidance sets a base or a near-term peak.
Bollinger bands frame $175.33 to $198.83; the Keltner upper sits near $199.71. RSI 61.29 and CCI 141.69 point to an overbought bias, while ADX 11.13 shows a weak trend. A sustained break above $198-$200 could target the $212.19 year high. Support: $187.08, then the 50-day average at $184.80.
Base case: demand stays firm, with quarterly model drift around the $78B guide. Upside: faster enterprise AI adoption lifts run-rate and software mix. Downside: China competition, supply bottlenecks, or capex pauses. For CHF-based investors, staggered entries and defined exits can manage FX and equity risk. Always size positions to daily ATR and portfolio limits.
Final Thoughts
Nvidia stock delivered a standout beat with $68B revenue and a $78B guide, confirming powerful AI chips demand and resilient data center growth. The stock’s valuation is rich, so execution and margin stability will matter more from here. We suggest tracking hyperscaler orders, HBM supply, and any updates on China competition. Technically, $198-$200 is pivotal, while $187 and the 50-day average offer reference support. Swiss investors should factor USD/CHF exposure, total trading costs, and diversification. With strong analyst support and healthy momentum, the next leg depends on guidance detail and delivery through the year.
FAQs
Is Nvidia stock a buy after earnings?
Earnings and guidance were strong, and momentum indicators are positive. Analysts lean bullish with 67 Buy ratings and a consensus of 4.00. Valuation is demanding at a 48.54 PE, so future beats and margin resilience are key. Consider position sizing and risk controls around the $198–$200 resistance.
What should Swiss investors consider before buying Nvidia stock?
The shares trade in USD, so your CHF portfolio faces currency moves and FX costs. Review total cost of ownership: spreads, stamp duty, custody, and any product fees if using CHF-hedged ETPs. Size positions to manage both equity volatility and USD/CHF swings. Diversification across tech sub-sectors can reduce risk.
How do China rivals affect Nvidia’s outlook?
Management cited long-term competitive pressure from Chinese firms. Export controls and domestic substitution could limit premium GPU share. Watch China AI budgets, local accelerator progress, and any policy shifts. Even with strong demand, more competition can influence pricing, mix, and margins over time.
Which technical levels matter for Nvidia stock today?
Watch $187.08 (Bollinger middle) and $198.83 (upper band). A breakout over $200 can open a path toward the $212.19 year high. RSI is 61.29, MACD is positive, and ATR at 5.84 frames daily risk. Rising volume above the 171.3M average improves breakout odds.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.