NVDA Stock Today: February 26 — $78B Guide Ex-China; Supply Chain Shift
NVDA stock is in focus after Nvidia beat Q4 expectations and guided Q1 revenue to $78 billion excluding China, signaling strong AI data center demand and resilient supply. For Swiss investors, this print highlights steady cloud spending, reduced geographic risk, and clearer visibility on orders. Shares last traded near $192.85 with volume above average. We break down the results, the U.S.-Mexico supply shift, valuation and technicals, and what CHF-based investors should watch next.
Earnings beat and $78B guidance
Nvidia topped Q4 estimates and set Q1 revenue guidance at $78 billion even without China, underscoring robust AI demand. The company cited powerful data center momentum, with data center revenue up 75% year over year, driven by hyperscalers and enterprise AI. See details in the company release source and coverage from CNBC source.
Guidance that excludes China reduces policy uncertainty and shows demand depth elsewhere. Orders from U.S. cloud providers and global enterprises appear sufficient to fill capacity. This supports near-term visibility for NVDA stock and lowers the odds of abrupt forecast cuts tied to export rules. It also shifts the focus to delivery schedules, product mix, and supply additions during 2026.
Supply chain shift to the U.S. and Mexico
Management is diversifying manufacturing and final assembly toward the U.S. and Mexico. That should improve logistics, add secondary routes, and reduce bottlenecks. For NVDA stock, more balanced geography can steady shipments of AI accelerators and networking gear. While not removing all risk, this move should support quarterly consistency as new capacity ramps and critical components remain in focus.
Added sites in North America can shorten outbound transit to U.S. customers and ease customs complexity for key lanes. Investors should watch for updates on lead times for next-gen accelerators, networking cards, and software bundles. If delivery windows stabilize, revenue recognition becomes smoother and supports the $78 billion outlook, especially while hyperscaler spending remains elevated.
What Swiss investors should watch
Swiss investors buying NVDA stock face USD exposure. Consider CHF-hedged vehicles if currency swings are a concern, or accept USD as part of global diversification. Liquidity on U.S. exchanges is deep, and most Swiss brokers offer direct access. Keep an eye on trading hours overlap, order types, and fees, which can affect execution quality.
At about $192.85, NVDA trades near a 48.3x P/E and roughly 25.6x sales, with a net margin near 53% and ROE above 100% on recent figures. These premium multiples require sustained growth in AI data center and software. Analyst views skew positive: 70 Buy/Strong Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, with a Buy-leaning consensus. Position sizing and stop rules matter here.
Technical setup after the print
Momentum is constructive: RSI at 61.29, MACD positive (1.96 vs 0.99), and the histogram rising. However, ADX at 11.13 signals a weak overall trend. Price sits near the Bollinger middle band of 187.08, with the upper band at 198.83. For NVDA stock, sustained closes above the upper band could invite follow-through buying on improving breadth.
Price trades around $192.85, with the day range between $187.40 and $193.77. The 50-day average is $184.80 and the 200-day is $173.19, both rising. The 52-week high stands at $212.19. A hold above $185 keeps bulls in control; a break and close over $199 could target the prior high. Watch volume versus the 171 million average.
Final Thoughts
Nvidia’s Q4 beat and $78 billion Q1 guidance excluding China reinforce its lead in AI infrastructure while easing policy risk. For Swiss investors, the key takeaways are clear: demand from cloud providers is strong, supply resilience is improving with the U.S.-Mexico shift, and valuation remains rich. Tactically, monitor delivery updates, pricing of next-gen accelerators, and any signs that hyperscaler orders slow. Technically, the 50-day average near $184.80 is a useful reference, while a push above $199 would strengthen momentum. With analyst sentiment skewed positive, disciplined sizing, attention to USD exposure, and a plan for volatility can keep risk in check.
FAQs
Is NVDA stock attractive for Swiss investors after the $78B guidance?
The guidance excluding China shows broad demand and better visibility, which supports sentiment. For Swiss investors, consider USD exposure, execution costs, and position sizing. Valuation is premium, so risk control matters. A staged entry around moving averages can help manage volatility if growth stays on track.
How does Nvidia’s shift to U.S. and Mexico manufacturing affect results?
Diversifying manufacturing and final assembly can reduce logistics risk, shorten transit for U.S. customers, and smooth quarterly shipments. This supports revenue recognition and helps NVDA meet large AI data center orders. It may add some near-term setup costs, but better delivery reliability often outweighs them when demand is strong.
What are the main risks to NVDA guidance excluding China?
Key risks include any slowdown in hyperscaler capital spending, supply bottlenecks in advanced components, competitive responses, and regulatory shifts. If lead times extend or pricing softens, near-term revenue could lag. Watch order commentary, product mix, and updates on next-gen accelerator availability through 2026.
Which technical levels matter most for NVDA stock now?
Watch $185 (near the 50-day average at $184.80) as initial support and $199 as a breakout marker near the upper band. A retest of $173 (200-day) would challenge the uptrend, while a move above $212.19 would reset the 52-week high. Volume relative to the 171 million average is important.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.