NVDA Stock Today: $78B Q1 Guide Ex-China; Shares Dip — February 27
NVDA stock (NVDA) fell today after Nvidia guided Q1 FY27 revenue to $78B excluding China, following record Q4 revenue of $68.1B. Data center sales hit $62.3B and gross margin hovered near 75%. The sell-the-news move has investors testing growth durability, hyperscaler AI budgets, and valuation. For Hong Kong investors, the HKD’s USD peg reduces currency swings, but entry points still matter. We break down the guide, the numbers, and what NVDA stock’s dip could mean next.
Q1 FY27 Guide and What Ex-China Means
Nvidia projected Q1 FY27 revenue of $78B, which excludes China. Management framed demand as broad across hyperscalers and enterprises, with AI training and inference both expanding. Investors are testing if supply can meet demand at scale while keeping gross margin near the mid-70s. The guide implies tight allocation and continued H200, B100, and networking pull-through, which supports multi-quarter visibility even as near-term sentiment cools.
The guide excludes China to reflect export limits and ongoing uncertainty. That shifts focus to the US and other regions that are ramping AI capex. The key question for NVDA stock is whether non-China demand more than offsets that gap. So far, hyperscalers and AI-native platforms appear to be driving the mix, while enterprise pilots start to move to production.
What can extend this cycle: sustained model upgrades, rising inference loads, and software attach. What can slow it: supply slippage, export changes, and a capex pause. For Hong Kong investors, the HKD’s USD link limits FX noise, so fundamentals and timing drive outcomes. We think orders breadth, lead times, and networking backlog are the cleanest checks on the $78B outlook.
Record Quarter by the Numbers
Nvidia posted record Q4 revenue of $68.1B, with data center revenue at $62.3B, showing AI infrastructure as the main engine. That scale points to strong shipments of accelerators and high-speed networking. The mix also suggests larger system deals rather than one-off card sales. Nvidia’s release details the strength across platforms and customers source.
Management highlighted gross margin near 75%. On a trailing basis, operating margin is 58.84% and net margin is 53.01%, underscoring strong pricing and software mix. NVDA stock benefits when software and networking expand alongside GPUs because that supports blended margins. Watch for any signs of discounting, higher component costs, or richer HBM content that could nudge margins quarter to quarter.
Liquidity remains a support. Current ratio is 4.47, debt-to-equity is 0.09, and interest coverage is 445.84. Working capital stands at $90.417B. This gives Nvidia room to invest in supply, software, and ecosystem partners. For investors, that balance sheet can buffer volatility and help secure long lead-time parts across memory, substrates, and advanced packaging.
NVDA Stock Today: Price Action and Technicals
NVDA stock traded down 5.49% to $184.89, with a day range of $184.32 to $194.29. Volume hit 354.57M versus a 171.34M average, showing an active session. The 52-week range stands at $86.62 to $212.19. The reaction matches a sell-the-news pattern noted by market coverage source.
RSI is 61.29, CCI is 141.69, and Stochastic %K is 92.32, signaling near-term overbought conditions. ADX at 11.13 indicates no strong trend. Price sits around the Bollinger middle band near $187.08, with upper at $198.83 and lower at $175.33. For NVDA stock, that suggests a consolidation window if volume cools and buyers defend the 50-day average.
TTM P/E is 48.31, price-to-sales is 25.63, and price-to-book is 40.30. This keeps execution risk high even with strong growth. Street sentiment remains positive: 3 Strong Buys, 70 Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell. NVDA stock can work if earnings outpace multiple risk, but pullbacks may be needed to refresh support.
What It Means for Hong Kong Investors
Most Hong Kong brokers offer US market access, so investors can trade NVDA stock during US hours. The HKD’s peg to USD narrows currency swings, which helps keep focus on fundamentals. Still, plan entries around liquidity windows and be mindful of after-hours volatility when guidance or headlines hit.
AI buildouts lift demand for accelerators, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, and high-speed networking. That can support select Asian suppliers in semis, memory, substrates, and thermal solutions. For NVDA stock holders in Hong Kong, tracking component lead times and data center build indicators can provide early signals on demand strength or pauses in orders.
Consider staggered entries to manage gap risk. Use alerts around earnings, product updates, and hyperscaler capex news. Nvidia’s next earnings is scheduled for 20 May 2026 UTC. For NVDA stock, we would watch gross margin trajectory, data center mix, and order commentary as catalysts that can reset sentiment and the trading range.
Final Thoughts
Nvidia’s $78B Q1 FY27 guide, excluding China, keeps the growth story intact after a record Q4 of $68.1B and data center revenue of $62.3B. Gross margin near 75% remains a key strength. NVDA stock dipped as investors weighed sustainability and valuation, not the demand backdrop. For Hong Kong investors, the HKD’s USD link reduces FX noise, so execution and timing matter most. Practical next steps: monitor supply signals, hyperscaler budgets, and margin trends; plan staggered entries; and align position size with volatility. If earnings growth outruns today’s multiple, pullbacks can become constructive opportunities.
FAQs
Why did NVDA stock fall after strong earnings?
It is a classic sell-the-news reaction. Nvidia posted record revenue and strong margins, then guided Q1 FY27 revenue to $78B excluding China. After a big run, high expectations met a cautious market. Traders locked in gains and tested support levels, despite demand remaining broad across training, inference, and networking.
What does the $78B ex-China guidance imply?
It reflects ongoing export limits and uncertainty around China. Management is signaling that demand outside China is strong enough to drive growth. For investors, it shifts attention to US and global hyperscalers, enterprise AI programs, and networking backlogs that can validate the outlook without relying on China contributions.
Is NVDA stock’s valuation too rich now?
TTM P/E near 48, price-to-sales around 26, and strong margins mean execution risk stays high. If earnings and cash flow compound faster than the multiple compresses, shares can still work. Pullbacks can help reset support. Watch data center mix, gross margin direction, and order commentary to judge valuation risk.
How should Hong Kong investors approach NVDA stock?
Use staggered entries to manage volatility, and size positions for US session gaps. The HKD’s USD peg narrows currency swings, so focus on fundamentals and timing. Track hyperscaler capex, component lead times, and Nvidia’s margin guidance. Consider using stop levels and alerts around earnings or major product updates to manage risk.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.