NVA.TO NuVista Energy (TSX) intraday 26 Feb: Mar 3 earnings may reset targets
We start with the key fact: NVA.TO stock trades at C$19.04 intraday on 26 Feb as the market prices in an earnings release scheduled for Mar 3, 2026. NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA.TO, TSX) has a trailing PE of 11.83 and EPS of C$1.61, and its shares have a 50-day average of C$18.29. Traders will look for production, realized liquids pricing, and cash flow updates to explain the current 1.38% intraday gain and guide analyst revisions.
Earnings preview: NVA.TO stock earnings on Mar 3
NuVista reports results on Mar 3, 2026 and the market expects commentary on Montney condensate volumes and operating costs. One clear driver will be realized pricing for condensate and natural gas liquids given the company’s Montney focus.
Analysts will watch operating cash flow per share and free cash flow per share; latest TTM figures show operating cash flow per share C$2.74 and free cash flow per share C$0.40, which link directly to dividend and buyback optionality.
Valuation and financials: NVA.TO stock fundamentals
NuVista’s market cap is C$3,687,068,982.00 and shares outstanding are 193,648,581. The company posts a PB ratio of 1.53, price-to-sales of 3.13, and an enterprise value to EBITDA of 5.58, indicating value relative to larger Canadian energy peers.
Revenue per share TTM is C$6.02, net income per share TTM is C$1.68, and debt to equity is 0.17, underscoring a conservative balance sheet heading into the report.
Technicals and market action: NVA.TO stock trading today
Intraday, NVA.TO is at C$19.04 with volume 1,609,823, above the average volume of 1,376,025, showing active buying ahead of earnings. Momentum indicators show RSI 66.84 and ADX 26.81, signaling a strong short-term trend.
Price sits above the 50-day average C$18.29 and 200-day average C$15.86, and short-term volatility (ATR C$0.31) suggests the stock can gap on the earnings print.
Meyka Grade & forecast: NVA.TO stock score and model outlook
Meyka AI rates NVA.TO with a score out of 100: 76.47 | Grade: B+ | Suggestion: BUY. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These grades are not guaranteed and we are not financial advisors.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects Yearly C$20.97 (implied upside 10.13% vs C$19.04). Shorter-term model reads: Monthly C$17.56 (‑7.77%) and Quarterly C$20.39 (+7.09%). Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Catalysts and risks affecting NVA.TO stock outlook
Primary catalysts include the Mar 3 earnings print, commodity price moves for condensate and gas, and any guidance change on 2026 capital spend; a positive operational update could re-rate the stock.
Key risks are commodity volatility, a drop in realized liquids pricing, and any widening in capex guidance that pressures free cash flow; NuVista’s current ratio 0.81 flags short-term liquidity sensitivity relative to peers.
Price targets and trading idea: NVA.TO stock price target and strategy
Analyst-type targets we reference against Meyka model: a conservative near-term target C$20.40, a 12-month target C$20.97, and a multi-year target C$29.20 (3-year model). Traders should size positions for earnings volatility and consider a stop near C$17.00 for downside protection.
Sector context: Canadian Energy peers show a 3M performance of 14.01%, and NuVista’s leverage and margins (net margin 27.85%) support a constructive relative view if commodity realizations hold.
Final Thoughts
Key takeaways: NVA.TO stock trades at C$19.04 ahead of a material earnings release on Mar 3, 2026 that will likely drive intraday volatility. NuVista shows a conservative debt profile (debt-to-equity 0.17), strong margins, and operating cash flow per share C$2.74. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly target of C$20.97, implying upside of 10.13% versus the current price; the quarterly view implies C$20.39 (+7.09%) while the monthly model is C$17.56 (‑7.77%). Use the report to confirm production and realized liquids pricing before adding exposure, and size trades for earnings swings. This update reflects Meyka AI’s data-driven view as an AI-powered market analysis platform and is for informational purposes only.
FAQs
When does NuVista report earnings and why does it matter for NVA.TO stock?
NuVista reports on Mar 3, 2026. The report matters because production levels, realized condensate pricing, and cash flow updates can change short-term valuation and analyst targets for NVA.TO stock.
What is Meyka AI’s forecast for NVA.TO stock and the implied upside?
Meyka AI’s yearly forecast for NVA.TO stock is C$20.97, implying upside of 10.13% from the current C$19.04. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
What are the main risks to NVA.TO stock after the earnings release?
Main risks include weaker realized liquids pricing, lower-than-expected production, and higher capex guidance that reduces free cash flow. Commodity swings can quickly alter NVA.TO stock performance.
How is NuVista valued relative to peers and what multiples matter for NVA.TO stock?
NuVista trades at PE 11.83 and PB 1.53, with EV/EBITDA 5.58, indicating a value tilt versus some larger Canadian energy names. Investors watch free cash flow yield and EV multiples for relative valuation of NVA.TO stock.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.