NHPC.NS Stock Today: February 23 — ₹227 Cr Arbitration Award to HCC
NHPC share price is in focus today after an arbitration ruling directed a ₹227 crore payment to Hindustan Construction Company. Investors in NHPC.NS and HCC.NS are weighing the earnings impact, provisioning, and near‑term trading cues. Based on the latest available close on 20 Feb, NHPC traded near ₹74, below key moving averages, while momentum cooled. We explain the award, estimate per‑share effects, and outline levels to watch. We also discuss what the decision could mean for HCC’s earnings quality and share price setup.
What the ₹227 crore arbitration award means
As reported, NHPC has been ordered to pay ₹227 crore to HCC, while NHPC’s counter‑claim stands at ₹738 crore. Final cash outflow and timing depend on enforcement, set‑offs, and any further legal steps. See the report for context and figures here: NHPC arbitration award news.
On a simple basis, ₹227 crore equals about ₹0.23 per NHPC share, using 10.05 billion shares outstanding. Applying NHPC’s TTM effective tax rate of ~46.6 percent implies an after‑tax hit near ₹0.12 per share, roughly 4 percent of TTM EPS. Versus market cap of ~₹74,805 crore, the gross award is near 0.3 percent, so sentiment may react more than valuation.
Impact on profit will depend on how much NHPC has already provided and what gets recognized this quarter. If not provided, a one‑time charge could trim reported earnings. Cash flow timing may differ from P&L. Watch management commentary on provisioning, potential stays, and netting against the ₹738 crore counter‑claim. A follow‑up reference is here: news report.
NHPC share price: valuation and technical setup
At the 20 Feb close, NHPC was ₹74.08, down 6.4 percent YTD and 6.7 percent over one year. The stock trades below the 50‑DMA ₹78.54 and 200‑DMA ₹82.73. TTM P/E is ~23.7 with a ~2.56 percent dividend yield and market cap near ₹74,805 crore. Receivables days are elevated at ~237, and debt‑to‑equity stands near 1.09 with interest cover ~3.51.
RSI is 37.7 and CCI is oversold, while MACD remains negative. Price sits near the lower Bollinger Band at ₹73.93, with ATR around ₹1.98 indicating wider daily swings. Immediate support is ₹73.7 to ₹74. Resistance sits at the middle band ₹77.3, then the 50‑DMA ₹78.5. ADX near 24.7 points to a moderate downtrend that could pause near support.
Key drivers are any provisioning disclosure, progress on the counter‑claim, and the next results on 18 May 2026. Monitor receivables traction and leverage given cash flow sensitivity. Our model path places the monthly fair value near ₹83.4 if sentiment stabilises, though technicals must first reclaim ₹77 to ₹79. For now, dips toward ₹74 may see buyers, but sustained closes below ₹73 risk further weakness.
Implications for HCC share price
A ₹227 crore inflow equals roughly ₹1.21 per HCC share on a gross basis using 1.87 billion shares. Actual recognition depends on collection, costs, and taxes. Even a partial realization would be meaningful versus TTM EPS of ~₹0.97 and market cap near ₹3,502 crore. Balance sheet metrics, including net debt to EBITDA ~1.18 and interest cover ~2.05, could improve with receipt.
HCC closed at ₹18.5 on 20 Feb, below the 200‑DMA ₹25.75 and near the lower Bollinger Band ₹18.33. RSI at 43 suggests weak momentum, and ADX near 10 shows no strong trend. Key resistance lies around the 50‑DMA ₹19.10, then ₹20.6. Execution risk remains until cash is received, and any appeal or delays could cap rallies.
Scenario analysis and positioning
Base case, NHPC recognizes part of the award as a provision, with limited balance sheet strain given size. If legal offsets progress, net P&L drag may be smaller than headlines. Model scenarios keep NHPC near ₹83 over the next month with moderate recovery if ₹77 to ₹79 is reclaimed. For HCC, any confirmed receipt could re‑rate earnings quality and tighten spreads.
Upside for NHPC comes from stays, offsets, or a favorable outcome on its ₹738 crore counter‑claim. Downside stems from a full charge and weaker cash collections. For HCC, clear visibility on timing and net proceeds would be a catalyst. Traders can frame risk using ATR: NHPC ~₹2, HCC ~₹0.8, with invalidation on closes beyond those ranges.
Final Thoughts
For India investors, the arbitration ruling is a near‑term sentiment driver rather than a balance sheet threat for NHPC. The gross amount equals about 0.3 percent of market cap and an estimated ₹0.12 per share after tax if fully expensed. We will watch provisioning disclosures, receivables, and leverage alongside price action near ₹74 support and the ₹77 to ₹79 resistance zone. For HCC, the award is material against earnings and market cap, but execution and timing matter. Confirmed receipts could improve coverage ratios and support a re‑rating toward the 50‑DMA. Trade tactically around the noted levels, prioritize risk control with ATR‑based stops, and reassess after management updates or any court developments tied to the award and counter‑claim. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before acting.
FAQs
How could the award affect NHPC’s earnings per share?
If NHPC books the full ₹227 crore as a fresh expense, the gross impact is about ₹0.23 per share. Using NHPC’s recent tax rate, the after‑tax effect is near ₹0.12 per share, roughly 4 percent of TTM EPS. The actual hit depends on existing provisions and any offsets.
Is the award a clear positive for HCC’s finances?
It is potentially positive, but only after receipt. Gross proceeds equal about ₹1.21 per share, which is meaningful versus TTM EPS. Recognition timing, legal costs, and taxes will shape the net impact. Confirmed inflows could also strengthen interest coverage and reduce effective leverage.
What levels matter most for NHPC share price near term?
Support sits around ₹73.7 to ₹74. Resistance is at the middle Bollinger Band near ₹77.3, then the 50‑DMA around ₹78.5. A sustained close above ₹79 could signal stabilization. A break below ₹73 may invite more selling given the current negative momentum.
Should long‑term NHPC investors change strategy now?
Long‑term holders may wait for management guidance on provisioning and the counter‑claim. The award is small versus market cap and cash flows. If the thesis is intact, averaging near support with a stop below ₹73 can manage risk. Review results on 18 May for clarity.
When might we get more clarity on both companies?
Two points to watch: any legal updates on enforcement or stays, and upcoming results. NHPC’s next earnings are scheduled for 18 May 2026, while HCC’s are on 6 May 2026. Management commentary on provisions, collections, and receivables should guide market reaction.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.