NBIS Stock Today, February 25: Meta-Nvidia Spend Lifts Nebius Outlook
Nebius stock is in focus today, February 25, as Meta’s plan to buy millions of Nvidia GPUs lifts demand visibility for Nebius Group’s AI cloud buildout. Shares of NBIS trade at $102.58, up 1.96%, with a $97.75 to $103.75 intraday range. Nebius holds a $3 billion Meta contract and a backlog above $20 billion that includes Microsoft. Analysts model about $3.4 billion of 2026 revenue as capacity scales toward 800MW to 1GW. We break down what this means for Nebius stock, today and into 2026.
Meta-Nvidia spending: why it matters
Meta signaled plans to buy millions of Nvidia GPUs and to route workloads through Nvidia Cloud Partners. That supports Nebius’s $3 billion Meta contract and gives clearer line-of-sight to multi-year orders. The setup could pull forward utilization in 2026 as AI models expand. For investors tracking Nebius stock, Meta capex looks like a key top-of-funnel driver source.
As an Nvidia Cloud Partner, Nebius can secure GPU capacity and software stacks faster than smaller peers. That status matters when H200 and B-series supply stays tight. It also helps Nebius package clusters with managed services that lift margins over time. For Nebius stock holders, partner credentials reduce execution risk around hardware procurement and deployment timelines.
Backlog, capacity, and 2026 outlook
Management has flagged a contracted pipeline above $20 billion, including Microsoft. Large anchors can ease financing and ramp risk. Customer prepayments and structured deals further reduce cash strain, according to third-party analysis, improving Nebius’s risk profile source. This backdrop supports Nebius stock as investors weigh near-term spend versus multi-year revenue conversion.
Nebius targets data center capacity of roughly 800MW to 1GW this year, positioning the platform for larger AI training clusters. Street models point to about $3.4 billion of 2026 revenue if build schedules and GPU deliveries hold. The next leg depends on utilization and on-time energization. For Nebius stock, timely rack-fill rates and churn-free renewals will be the biggest proof points.
Price, valuation, and technical setup
Nebius stock trades at $102.58 today, up 1.96%, with a 52-week range of $18.31 to $141.10. Valuation is rich at about 45.27 times sales and negative free cash flow yield. Analysts show 4 Buys and 1 Hold, a Buy consensus. A quantitative model rates it C with a Sell tilt, while a composite grade is B with a Hold view. Next earnings: April 29, 2026.
RSI sits at 56.12 and MACD is positive, while ADX at 13.84 signals no strong trend. Average true range is 8.01, so swings remain wide. The 50-day average near $92.83 is first support, with the middle Bollinger band at $93.40. Upper band resistance is $109.15, then $141.10. Volume is below average, which may limit breakouts.
Risks and portfolio positioning
Nebius is capital intensive, with free cash flow per share at -$9.36 and capex per share at $12.49. Debt to equity is about 1.06. Delays in Nvidia shipments, power readiness, or customer ramps could push revenue right. Pricing pressure from hyperscale buyers is another risk. Nebius stock also faces dilution risk if external funding is needed to accelerate builds.
We would scale in around supports, reassess after April 29 earnings, and watch Meta capex updates. Pairing Nebius exposure with Nvidia (NVDA) can hedge supply-chain timing. For traders, a stop below the 50-day average adds discipline. Long-term holders should track backlog conversion, utilization, and cash burn. Nebius stock fits a satellite position inside a diversified AI infrastructure basket.
Final Thoughts
Nebius stock is levered to a powerful AI infrastructure cycle. Meta’s GPU plans and the Nvidia Cloud Partner channel support order flow, while a backlog above $20 billion and a $3 billion Meta contract add visibility. The near-term task is execution: energize 800MW to 1GW, secure GPUs on time, and fill racks to drive 2026 revenue near $3.4 billion. Valuation is demanding and free cash flow is negative, so proof of conversion and margin traction matter. Our actionable view: build positions gradually, monitor April 29 earnings for capex cadence and backlog detail, track Meta capex updates and Nvidia shipment timing, and use technical levels for risk control. This article is for information only, not investment advice.
FAQs
Is Nebius stock a buy today?
Nebius stock offers strong demand visibility from Meta and Microsoft, but valuation is high and free cash flow is negative. Street ratings skew Buy, while a quant model is cautious. We would treat it as a selective add on dips near support, then reassess after April 29 earnings and capacity updates.
How does Meta capex affect Nebius stock?
Meta plans to buy millions of Nvidia GPUs and use Nvidia Cloud Partners, which supports Nebius’s $3 billion contract and future cluster demand. The more Meta scales AI, the more compute Nebius can provision. Clear signals on GPU orders and deployment timing tend to lift sentiment around Nebius stock.
What is Nebius’s 2026 outlook for revenue and capacity?
Analysts model about $3.4 billion of 2026 revenue if Nebius energizes and fills capacity. Management targets roughly 800MW to 1GW this year, which would support larger training clusters. For Nebius stock, sustained utilization, stable pricing, and on-time GPU deliveries are the key drivers of meeting that outlook.
What are the main risks for Nebius stock?
Key risks include GPU supply timing, power and construction delays, pricing pressure from hyperscalers, and financing needs given negative free cash flow. High valuation magnifies downside if ramps slip. We would track backlog conversion rates, utilization levels, cash burn, and any changes to Meta capex or Nvidia availability.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.