MSFT Stock Today: February 26 — SOTU Plan Targets AI Power Costs
MSFT stock today is in focus for Hong Kong investors after Trump’s State of the Union pointed to making tech firms help pay electricity costs tied to AI data centers and keeping tariff policies. For MSFT, the last available price was US$389, about HK$3,034 using HK$7.80 per US$1. Shares are down 14.02% over 1 month and 15.29% year to date. We see policy follow through as a near term risk to Azure margins, capex pacing, and Asia supply chain costs. We break down positioning, valuation, and timing for HK portfolios.
SOTU policy watch: what it could mean for Microsoft
Trump’s idea to make tech firms share electricity costs would hit AI training and inference workloads. Microsoft’s capex intensity is already high, at 27.20% of revenue and 51.77% of operating cash flow. With a 68.59% gross margin and 46.67% operating margin, even small cost pass-throughs can compress hyperscale margins. Policy design, exemptions, and timing will decide near term Azure pricing and investment cadence.
A defense of tariffs raises risk to server components, GPUs, and networking imports, which could lift build costs or elongate lead times. Some costs may pass to customers, affecting AI project budgets in Asia. Watch procurement cycles and multi region sourcing to offset shocks. See reporting on SOTU themes from CNN and The New York Times.
Key signposts for MSFT stock today include any draft bills on AI power cost sharing, potential renewable energy credits, data center incentive offsets, and tariff scope changes. Also track state level energy proposals where Microsoft builds. Management guidance on AI unit economics and capacity timing will be crucial to assess near term margin impact versus long term demand.
MSFT valuation, momentum, and risk snapshot
Technicals lean cautious for MSFT stock today. RSI at 39.64 sits below neutral, with ADX 35.53 showing a strong trend. Price trails the 50 day average of 454.13 and 200 day of 486.88. Bollinger lower band is 368.04, a reference area for support. ATR is 11.04, roughly HK$86 per day using HK$7.80 per US$1, signaling active swings.
Earnings power remains solid: EPS 15.99 with a 25.06 P/E, 33.61% ROE, and 53.94 interest coverage. Free cash flow per share is 10.42, or a 2.61% yield at the given price. Dividend yield stands near 0.87% with a 21.19% payout ratio. Current ratio is 1.39 and net debt to EBITDA is 0.17, supporting resilience through policy shocks.
Analysts show breadth of support for MSFT stock today: 57 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, consensus 3.00. Our Company Rating on 2026-02-24 is B+ with a Neutral tilt, while the Stock Grade is A at 83.68 suggesting BUY. Baseline targets show $508.44 quarterly and $526.34 yearly, reaching $736.23 in five years, pending policy clarity.
HK investor angles: electricity, tariffs, and cloud pace
Hong Kong enterprises using Azure AI should expect possible price adjustments if US policy adds energy surcharges. Locking in reserved instances, verifying service level terms, and monitoring any power related fees can protect budgets. Billing in HKD simplifies planning, but we reference US$ to HK$ at 7.80 per US$1 for illustration when comparing external costs.
For HK based resellers and integrators, tariff risk can raise landed costs for AI servers, storage, and networking procured via US routes. Consider multi origin sourcing and flexible delivery windows. Clarify price adjustment clauses and currency hedges. If tariffs widen, prioritize vendors with production in alternative Asia hubs to reduce delay and cost variance.
For investors, respect volatility. A staged approach near the Bollinger lower band of US$368, about HK$2,871 at 7.80 per US$1, can improve entry quality. Size positions with ATR near US$11, roughly HK$86, as a guide for stop width. Reassess on 29 April earnings, focusing on Azure growth, AI unit costs, and any tariff or energy pass-through commentary.
Final Thoughts
For Hong Kong investors tracking MSFT stock today, the SOTU focus on AI power costs and tariffs introduces practical near term risks. Electricity cost sharing could pressure hyperscale margins and alter cloud investment timing. Tariffs may lift server and component costs, with partial pass-through to Asia customers. Yet Microsoft’s balance sheet, ROE, and cash generation provide support while management optimizes capacity. We suggest pairing disciplined entries with clear risk limits, using ATR and key support references. Watch for draft policy details, supplier shifts, and any Azure price notices. The 29 April earnings update is the next catalyst to test AI economics, capex plans, and guidance quality.
FAQs
How could SOTU energy proposals affect Microsoft’s margins?
If tech firms must help pay electricity costs tied to AI data centers, operating expenses can rise while capex needs stay high. With gross margin at 68.59% and operating margin at 46.67%, even modest surcharges could trim hyperscale margins until pricing, efficiency gains, or renewable offsets catch up.
Is MSFT stock today attractive after recent declines?
Technicals are cautious, with RSI 39.64 and price below 50 and 200 day averages. However, EPS strength, 33.61% ROE, and low net debt support the long term case. Consider staged entries near support, size with ATR, and reassess after the 29 April earnings update.
What does tariff risk mean for Hong Kong buyers?
Tariffs can raise costs for servers and networking procured via US supply routes, leading to higher project budgets or delivery changes. HK buyers should secure flexible sourcing, confirm price adjustment clauses, and assess vendors with diversified Asia manufacturing to lower timing and cost risk.
What should HK investors watch next for MSFT stock today?
Track any draft bills on AI electricity cost sharing, tariff headlines, Azure price notices, and supplier diversification updates. On 29 April, focus on Azure growth, AI unit costs, and capex guidance. Monitor technicals around the US$368 band and volatility using ATR to set disciplined risk limits.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.