MSFT Stock Today: February 25 — Gerstner Boosts Stake; Pelosi Aligns

Brad Gerstner is doubling down on Microsoft (MSFT) as Altimeter Capital raised its stake about 10% in Q4 2025, aligning with his AI “super cycle” view. Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio also includes MSFT, adding a high-profile vote of confidence. For Canadian investors, this combo highlights persistent belief in Microsoft’s AI cloud and productivity tools. Today we break down what Gerstner’s move and Pelosi’s position may signal, plus fresh price, valuation, and technical reads that matter when sizing exposure in CAD and managing FX and tax.

Gerstner’s Add: Reading the AI Signal

Altimeter Capital’s Q4 2025 filing shows roughly a 10% increase in MSFT, consistent with Brad Gerstner’s AI “super cycle” thesis. The move follows his pattern of concentrating in platform leaders. For context on his broader bets, see Meyka’s summary of recent positions source. For Canadians, the takeaway is simple: one of tech’s earliest AI bulls is still leaning into scale players with durable cash flow and data moats.

Microsoft AI cloud advantages span Azure’s model access, Copilot across Microsoft 365, and GitHub integrations. Brad Gerstner has emphasized platforms that monetize AI through existing workflows, not just new apps. That is where Microsoft can pull pricing and boost seat expansion. With high margins and recurring revenue, small adoption gains in Copilot or Azure AI can translate into notable free cash flow growth over time.

For Canadian portfolios, we see three practical notes: first, USD exposure can add volatility versus CAD, so position size accordingly. Second, US dividends face 15% withholding, typically waived inside an RRSP when holding US stocks directly, but not in a TFSA. Third, Brad Gerstner’s stance is a data point, not advice. Pair it with your own return goals and time horizon.

Pelosi Alignment: Sentiment, Not Certainty

MSFT appears among Nancy Pelosi stocks, creating a rare overlap with Brad Gerstner’s view. The shared exposure suggests confidence in Microsoft’s AI and cloud roadmap from very different investors. Recent coverage of their common picks provides helpful context for sentiment trends source. For Canadians tracking policy and capital flows, this overlap may support steady demand around AI platform leaders like Microsoft.

We treat Pelosi’s holding and Brad Gerstner’s add as a soft signal, not a buy rule. Well-known investors often hold winners for different reasons and time frames. The real test is delivery: Azure AI growth, Copilot monetization, and guidance on AI infrastructure costs. Positive updates there can validate sentiment. Misses can unwind it quickly, especially after large multi-year gains.

Canadian equity indices have less mega-cap tech weight than US benchmarks, so MSFT can diversify growth exposure. Still, avoid over-concentration. Map MSFT to a target weight within your US allocation, monitor FX drift versus CAD, and consider staggered adds. Brad Gerstner’s thesis rests on durable AI demand. Confirm it by watching customer adoption metrics and management commentary each quarter.

MSFT Today: Price, Valuation, and Technicals

Price: US$389.00 (+1.18% 1D); day range US$381.71–US$389.36; 1M -16.51%, YTD -17.75%, 1Y -3.71%, 3Y +56.09%. Shares trade below the 50-day (US$454.13) and 200-day (US$486.88) averages, and well under the 52-week high (US$555.45). That pullback has reset expectations into spring, giving long-term holders a chance to reassess entries while keeping an eye on liquidity and catalysts.

At 24.36x TTM earnings with ~39.04% net margin and ~33.61% ROE, MSFT remains high quality despite the drawdown. Dividend yield is ~0.90% with a ~21% payout ratio. Cash generation is strong, though capex is elevated to support AI infrastructure (capex-to-revenue ~27.20%). This mix suits Brad Gerstner’s focus on cash-rich platforms that can fund AI buildout without stressing the balance sheet.

Analysts: 57 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell; consensus Buy. Next earnings: April 29, 2026. Meyka Stock Grade: A (BUY). Company Rating: B+ (Neutral) given valuation and trend. Technicals lean weak near term: RSI 31.26, CCI -152.33, Stoch %K 11.16, MACD negative, ADX 36.12. Watch reference levels: Bollinger middle 413.48, lower 362.01, and Keltner lower 390.28 for potential support and risk control.

Final Thoughts

Brad Gerstner boosted his MSFT stake while Nancy Pelosi also holds the name, signaling ongoing conviction in Microsoft’s AI cloud. For Canadians, that signal is useful but not a substitute for a plan. Action steps: size positions with CAD–USD in mind, use staged entries while momentum is weak, and monitor Copilot attach, Azure AI growth, and AI capex guidance on April 29. Track reference levels around 390 and 362 to calibrate risk. Combine analyst support with your goals, taxes, and time horizon. If fundamentals keep compounding, the long thesis remains intact.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.