COL.AX stock opened pre-market on 28 Feb 2026 after Coles Group Limited reported weaker headline profit despite rising sales. Shares trade at A$20.56, down 5.77% on heavy volume of 14,326,078. H1 adjusted EBIT rose to A$1.23 billion while statutory net profit fell 11.30% to A$511.00 million. This earnings update shifts the debate to supermarket growth, liquor weakness and near-term valuation for investors on the ASX in Australia.

Earnings snapshot: COL.AX stock H1 FY2026 results

Coles Group reported H1 FY2026 results on 27 Feb 2026. Group sales revenue rose 2.50% to A$23.62 billion while adjusted net profit was A$676.00 million versus A$601.00 million a year earlier.

Statutory net profit fell 11.30% to A$511.00 million. Adjusted EBIT increased 10.20% to A$1.23 billion and adjusted Group EBITDA rose 7.80% to A$2.21 billion. The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of A$0.41 per share.

Revenue drivers and segment detail: COL.AX analysis of supermarkets and liquor

Supermarkets led the company with sales up 3.60%, and eCommerce sales grew 27.00%, showing faster digital engagement. Liquor revenue declined 3.20%, a drag on group performance.

Coles said seven weeks into Q3 supermarkets sales rose 3.70%, or 5.30% excluding tobacco. Liquor declines moderated to 2.50% in the same period. These trends explain the mixed earnings read and guide near-term trading expectations.

Market reaction and technicals: COL.AX stock trading response

In pre-market trade on 28 Feb 2026 COL.AX stock quoted A$20.56, down A$1.26 or 5.77%, after opening at A$21.50. Volume was 14,326,078, well above the average volume of 2,282,087.

Technicals show RSI 61.46 and MACD near neutral. The 50‑day average is A$21.41 and the 200‑day average is A$21.91, signalling short-term pressure below both averages. Year high is A$24.28 and year low is A$18.33.

Valuation and cash flow: COL.AX forecast metrics and ratios

Coles trades at a trailing PE of 27.40 with EPS A$0.81. Price to sales is 0.67, price to free cash flow is 20.55, and dividend yield is about 3.11% with dividend per share A$0.69. Net debt to EBITDA sits around 2.50 reflecting leverage in the business.

Operating cash flow per share is A$2.20 and free cash flow per share is A$1.08. Return on equity is 28.51%, while debt to equity is 2.71, a structural factor investors should weigh against steady cash generation.

Meyka AI rates COL.AX with a score out of 100 and price outlook

Meyka AI rates COL.AX with a score out of 100: the model gives a 69.82 / 100, Grade B and a HOLD suggestion. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus.

Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly price of A$26.18, implying 27.34% upside from the current A$20.56. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. Use this as one input among fundamentals and market data.

Risks and catalysts: COL.AX opportunities and threats

Upside catalysts include continued supermarket momentum, faster eCommerce growth and margin recovery in convenience. The declared interim dividend supports income-focused investors.

Risks include slower liquor recovery, margin pressure from promotions, and high leverage metrics. Sector comparatives show Coles PE 27.40 versus Consumer Defensive average PE 24.84, indicating a slight premium for Coles on the ASX.

Final Thoughts

Coles Group (COL.AX) reported mixed H1 FY2026 results that explain the pre-market price dip to A$20.56 on 28 Feb 2026. The core supermarket business grew sales and eCommerce, while liquor sales lagged. Key metrics show trailing PE 27.40, dividend per share A$0.69, and leverage that requires monitoring. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$26.18 over the next year, implying 27.34% upside versus current price. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. For traders, watch supermarket margin trends and Q3 sales updates. For income investors, the 3.11% yield and A$0.41 interim dividend are relevant. We link the recent company release and market coverage for detail: Nasdaq report on H1 results and Investing.com slides and transcript. Meyka AI provides this AI-powered market analysis as part of broader research but we are not financial advisors.

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Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.