GUI.DE stock down 14.81% intraday on 26 Feb 2026: Weak US demand drags price lower
GUI.DE stock plunged 14.81% intraday to €18.40 on 26 Feb 2026 after Diageo plc lowered its 2026 sales and profit outlook and cut the dividend. Volume spiked to 164,876 versus an average of 70,280, signaling forced selling. The move follows a weaker U.S. and China demand update and a halved dividend guidance in the company’s fiscal first-half report, linking the earnings update directly to the sharp price reaction on XETRA in Germany.
Earnings update and immediate market reaction for GUI.DE stock
Diageo plc (GUI.DE) reported H1 net sales fell 4.00% to $10.50 billion, and operating profit slipped to $3.10 billion. Management now expects organic sales to be down 2.00%–3.00% and organic operating profit to be flat to up low single digits for 2026. Investors pushed the XETRA price to a day low of €18.30, below the previous close of €21.60, as concerns about U.S. consumer weakness and tariff costs mounted.
The company’s EPS stands at 0.90, with a trailing PE of 20.89. The earnings announcement on 25 Feb 2026 directly explains the intraday sell-off and the high relative volume, linking fundamentals to price action.
Technical snapshot and trading setup for GUI.DE stock
Short-term technicals show selling pressure: RSI 38.79, CCI -211.60 (oversold), and MACD histogram -0.10. Price sits below the 50-day average €19.33 and the 200-day average €21.20, confirming a short-term downtrend on XETRA. Bollinger lower band is €18.81, with intraday low €18.30, indicating proximity to short-term support.
Liquidity spiked: volume 164,876 with relVolume 9.32. Traders should watch immediate resistance at the previous close €21.60, and short-term support at the year low €18.10.
Valuation context and key metrics for GUI.DE stock
On fundamentals, Diageo carries a trailing PE of 20.95, price-to-sales 2.44, and price-to-book 4.45. Free cash flow yield is 5.44%, and dividend per share TTM is €1.07, giving a dividend yield around 4.82% at prior price levels. Debt-to-equity is elevated at 2.20, and net debt to EBITDA is 3.49, highlighting leverage risk in a slower growth cycle.
These ratios show a premium valuation relative to some consumer defensive peers, while payout ratio near 97.62% raises sustainability questions after the dividend cut.
Sector and macro drivers affecting GUI.DE stock
Diageo sits in the Consumer Defensive sector and the Beverages – Wineries & Distilleries industry. Weak U.S. disposable income trends and tariff headwinds compressed demand, especially in North America and China. The broader Consumer Defensive sector in Germany shows YTD performance 7.90%, but beverage names have uneven results, and Diageo’s downgrade is a company-specific shock amid relatively stable sector flows.
Macro risks include slower consumer spending and tariff costs. Tariff policy and FX shifts are immediate downside drivers for GUI.DE on XETRA.
Meyka AI rates GUI.DE with a score out of 100 and forecast
Meyka AI rates GUI.DE with a score of 69.38 / 100 (Grade B) and suggests HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, analyst consensus, and forecasts. The model flags strong brand portfolio and cash flow but notes elevated leverage and margin pressure.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a monthly price of €19.27, a quarterly target of €15.21, and a yearly projection of €12.41. Compared with the current price €18.40, the monthly projection implies a +4.73% upside, while the yearly forecast implies -32.57% downside. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Risk-reward and trading strategies for GUI.DE stock
Near-term reward favors tactical buyers around confirmed support €18.10–€18.30; downside risk increases if price closes below €18.10. Use tight stops given volatility: ATR €0.74 and on-balance volume trend negative. Swing traders might target a retracement to €19.33 (50-day MA) or €21.20 (200-day MA) if sentiment stabilises.
Long-term investors should weigh brand strength and cash flow against a high payout ratio and leverage. Position sizing and hedging are prudent until margins and organic sales guidance show recovery.
Final Thoughts
Diageo plc’s GUI.DE stock fell 14.81% intraday to €18.40 on 26 Feb 2026 after the company cut its 2026 outlook and trimmed the dividend. The sell-off was driven by weaker North American and Chinese demand, tariff headwinds, and a spike in trading activity (volume 164,876, relVolume 9.32). On valuation, trailing PE is 20.95 and free cash flow yield is 5.44%, but leverage metrics — debt-to-equity 2.20 and net debt/EBITDA 3.49 — increase risk if margins stay under pressure. For traders, key levels to watch are support near €18.10 and resistance at previous close €21.60 and the 200-day average €21.20. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a short-term monthly target of €19.27 (implied +4.73% vs current price) and a 12-month projection of €12.41 (implied -32.57%). These figures illustrate the split case: tactical recovery possible, but multimonth downside remains if organic sales weaken further. Use strict risk controls and watch upcoming results and regional demand data. For live data and tools, see the Meyka stock page for GUI.DE and follow coverage from primary news sources like CNBC and Seeking Alpha. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
FAQs
Why did GUI.DE stock drop so sharply on 26 Feb 2026?
GUI.DE stock fell after Diageo cut its 2026 organic sales outlook and reduced the dividend, citing weaker U.S. and China demand and tariff costs. The company reported H1 net sales down 4.00% and operating profit of $3.10 billion, triggering a volume spike and forced selling.
What are the key support and resistance levels for GUI.DE stock?
Key near-term support is the year low at €18.10 and the intraday low €18.30. Immediate resistance sits at the previous close €21.60 and the 200-day average €21.20. Watch the 50-day average €19.33 for a first recovery target.
How does Meyka AI view GUI.DE stock and its forecast?
Meyka AI rates GUI.DE 69.38 / 100 (Grade B, HOLD). The model projects a monthly target €19.27 (+4.73% vs €18.40) and a yearly projection €12.41 (-32.57%). These are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Is GUI.DE stock a buy for income investors after the dividend cut?
The dividend cut increases uncertainty. Dividend per share TTM was €1.07 and payout ratio near 97.62% pre-cut. Income investors should reconsider until payout sustainability and leverage (debt-to-equity 2.20) improve, or seek signs of margin recovery.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.