^GSPC Today, February 24: SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Spurs 15% Pivot, Refund Risk
The SCOTUS tariff ruling is moving markets today. Customs and Border Protection paused IEEPA collections, opening the door to as much as $175 billion in refunds, while the White House signaled a temporary 15% global tariff under Section 122 for up to 150 days. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trades at 6861.88, down 47.63 points or 0.689%. Year to date, the index is off 0.275%. With refund timing unclear and Europe delaying a trade vote, pricing power and margins face fresh uncertainty across importers, retailers, and manufacturers.
What the Supreme Court Decision Changes Now
CBP stopped collecting IEEPA-based duties after the SCOTUS tariff ruling, raising the prospect of large IEEPA tariff refunds. Estimates run up to $175 billion for importers, though payment timing is unclear and may depend on claims, audits, and guidance. This raises cash flow hopes for high-duty categories. See background and refund debate from Fortune’s coverage source.
The White House flagged a stopgap 15% global tariff using Section 122 tariffs for as long as 150 days. This aims to slow import surges and stabilize prices while rules reset. For companies, the mix is messy. IEEPA refunds help cash, but a new 15% global tariff lifts landed costs. The policy zigzag keeps earnings visibility low near term.
S&P 500 Levels, Breadth, and Volatility
The S&P 500 sits at 6861.88 after a 47.63 drop, trading between 6833.06 and 6879.12. It opened at 6861.34, below the 50-day average of 6896.08 and above the 200-day at 6529.65. The year high is 7002.28 and the low is 4835.04. Breadth may narrow as tariff-sensitive groups adjust to shifting costs.
Momentum is soft: RSI 44.81, MACD negative, and ADX 16.55 shows no trend. Bollinger mid-line is 6908.76 with support near 6797.04 and resistance near 7020.47. ATR at 80.58 signals wider swings. The SCOTUS tariff ruling can push tests of these bands as traders price refund odds versus the temporary levy.
Sector Takeaways for Investors
Import-heavy retailers and manufacturers could see margin whiplash. IEEPA tariff refunds would boost cash and may cut COGS, but the 15% global tariff can lift new purchase orders and squeeze spreads. Watch inventory dates, category mix, and guidance. The SCOTUS tariff ruling increases dispersion, rewarding firms with flexible sourcing and faster price resets.
Tariff churn can slow trade volumes, affecting energy demand signals, industrial materials, and exporters. Supply chain rerouting and EU politics add noise, with the EU pausing a key trade-deal vote. Companies with long-dated contracts may lag in repricing. The SCOTUS tariff ruling favors balance sheets with low leverage and strong free cash to ride near-term shocks.
What to Watch Next
Key items: formal CBP guidance on claim procedures, refund timing windows, and the legal footing of any Section 122 rollout. The EU Parliament’s delay adds cross-border uncertainty. For a policy primer on post-ruling scenarios, see USA Today’s explainer source. These updates will steer earnings revisions.
Keep position sizes modest into headlines. Use clear stop levels around 6797 to 6909 Bollinger mid and lower lines. Consider staggered buys on weakness in quality importers with net cash. Prefer firms with pricing power and diversified sourcing. The SCOTUS tariff ruling argues for hedges and shorter-duration bets until refund timing firms up.
Final Thoughts
For investors, today’s takeaway is straightforward. The SCOTUS tariff ruling likely pauses IEEPA duties and sets up sizable IEEPA tariff refunds, but a temporary 15% global tariff under Section 122 can offset near-term relief. Expect choppy trading as cash flow assumptions and landed costs reset. Use the S&P 500’s 6797 to 7020 Bollinger levels to frame risk, and watch RSI and ATR for momentum and volatility. Focus on companies with flexible sourcing, low leverage, and proven pricing power. Track CBP guidance, company refund disclosures, and White House updates. Patience and disciplined position sizing matter while policy clarity builds.
FAQs
What did the Supreme Court decide on the tariffs?
The Court voided the IEEPA-based tariffs, which prompted CBP to halt collections. This opens the door to IEEPA tariff refunds for importers, subject to procedures and timing guidance. The decision does not bar the White House from using other legal tools, including a temporary Section 122 action.
How big could IEEPA tariff refunds be and who gets them?
Refunds could total up to $175 billion, depending on eligible entries and claims. Importers that paid IEEPA-based duties are the primary beneficiaries. Payments will likely rely on documentation, audits, and agency timelines, so cash flow timing can vary by company and product category.
What is the 15% global tariff under Section 122?
It is a proposed, temporary tariff applied broadly to imports for up to 150 days under Section 122 tariffs. The goal is to manage trade flows while longer-term policy is set. If enacted, it would raise near-term landed costs and could offset some benefits from expected IEEPA refunds.
How should S&P 500 investors respond today?
Use clear levels for risk control and avoid large, leverage-heavy bets. Emphasize firms with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and diversified sourcing. Monitor CBP refund guidance and any Section 122 announcements. Expect volatility around technical bands and reassess exposures as companies disclose refund amounts and cost impacts.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.