^GSPC Today, February 24: SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Clouds Trump’s 15% Plan
The S&P 500 faces fresh policy risk after the Supreme Court ruling curtailed IEEPA tariff powers and Trump floated a 15% levy under Section 122. That tool expires after 150 days unless Congress extends it, keeping Congress on tariffs squarely in focus. We outline how this legal shift can sway S&P 500 risk sentiment, margins, and multiples, and what it means for Australian portfolios with US exposure. We also map near-term technical levels and scenario plans that matter for today’s decisions.
Tariff mechanics after the Supreme Court ruling
The Supreme Court ruling narrowed the IEEPA path, pushing any new broad measures toward Section 122. A Trump 15% tariff under Section 122 would be time-limited to 150 days unless Congress renews it, which raises legislative risk and timing uncertainty. That makes Congress on tariffs the key swing factor for durability and scope. See coverage: Congress contemplates its role on tariffs after Supreme Court decision.
If prior IEEPA-based tariffs are invalidated, importers may seek refunds, while agencies reassess compliance frameworks. Companies face shifting paperwork, revised country-of-origin calls, and possible carve-outs that favor specific sectors. A 150-day clock encourages front-loaded shipments and inventory pulls, but it also risks sharp pullbacks if Congress withholds extensions. For the S&P 500, that stop-start pattern can lift volatility and compress margins in import-reliant industries.
Market signals and what the tape says
The S&P 500 recently printed 6861.88, with a day range of 6833.06 to 6879.12 and a prior close of 6909.51. The 50-day average is 6896.08 and the 200-day is 6529.65. RSI sits at 44.81, ADX at 16.55 shows no strong trend, and MACD is negative. ATR of 80.58 signals active swings. Bollinger middle is 6908.76, with lower at 6797.04, framing near-term support and resistance.
Tariffs can lift input costs, dent pricing power, and pressure multiples if earnings guidance turns cautious. Our baseline forecasts place the S&P 500 at 6865.03 on a quarterly view and 7066.67 over a year, with 3-year at 8315.95, 5-year at 9563.32, and 7-year at 10845.81. Overall grade is C+ with a score of 58.51 and a HOLD signal, reflecting mixed momentum and policy uncertainty.
Why this matters in Australia
Australian exporters to the US and China face order timing shifts and possible sector-specific levies. Local leaders warn tariff turbulence is getting harder to manage, which can affect hiring and capex plans. See: Australian businesses warn tariff chaos becoming harder to endure. For diversified portfolios, S&P 500 swings can alter global risk appetite, the AUD path, and resources, agriculture, and discretionary exposure.
Prioritise balance sheets with low leverage and stable cash flows, and stagger US buys around key technical markers. For the S&P 500, watch the 50-day average at 6896.08, Bollinger lower at 6797.04, and the 200-day at 6529.65. Consider AUD or USD hedges that match invoice currencies. Re-assess suppliers’ tariff exposure, and prepare for faster rebalancing when Congress signals extension or rejection.
Final Thoughts
The Supreme Court ruling cut back IEEPA tariffs, and a Trump 15% tariff under Section 122 would face a 150-day limit unless Congress renews it. That keeps policy risk elevated and the timing uncertain. For the S&P 500, margins and multiples could swing with each legislative cue, while technicals show a neutral-to-soft tape with RSI at 44.81 and ATR at 80.58. Australian investors should keep portfolios flexible: emphasise quality cash flows, review supplier exposure, and align currency hedges to actual receipts and costs. Use levels at 6896, 6797, and 6529 as action points, and reassess allocation when Congress clarifies the tariff path.
FAQs
What did the Supreme Court ruling change for U.S. tariffs?
The Supreme Court ruling limited reliance on IEEPA for broad tariff actions, invalidating many measures tied to that authority. That channels future activity toward Section 122, where a Trump 15% tariff would be capped at 150 days unless Congress extends it. The shift puts Congress on tariffs at the center of durability and scope. Firms now face refund claims, classification checks, and tighter timelines when planning shipments and pricing.
How could a 15% tariff affect the S&P 500?
A 15% across-the-board tariff would raise import costs and complicate supply chains, which can squeeze margins and dampen earnings revisions. Multiples could compress if guidance weakens or if bond yields rise on inflation concerns. Some companies might pass costs to customers, but price-sensitive categories could underperform. The S&P 500 may see higher day-to-day swings, with ATR at 80.58 and RSI near 44, as traders fade rallies into known resistance zones.
What should Australian investors monitor in the weeks ahead?
Track congressional signals on tariff extensions, any USTR notices on sector carve-outs, and changes to customs compliance. Watch the AUD reaction to trade headlines, since currency moves can offset or amplify equity risk. Listen for tariff language in US earnings calls, especially consumer and industrial names. If Congress delays action, expect front-loaded shipments, inventory shifts, and a choppy tape that challenges buy-and-hold entries.
Which technical levels matter for the S&P 500 right now?
Key reference points include the 50-day average at 6896.08, Bollinger middle at 6908.76, lower band at 6797.04, and the 200-day at 6529.65. Price recently sat near 6861.88 with RSI at 44.81 and MACD negative, suggesting a neutral-to-soft setup. Above the 50-day, momentum can improve. A decisive break below the lower band would flag rising downside risk and favor tighter risk controls.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.