^GSPC Today: February 23 — Trump’s GDP Tease, Tariff Ruling Jolt Risk
Truth social trump chatter moved markets after a post hinted at weak U.S. growth before the release. That stirred GDP data leak concerns as risk appetite shifted. With inflation firm and the Fed on hold narrative building, the S&P 500 is in focus for cross‑border portfolios. Today, ^GSPC trades at 6,837.74, down 1.04%, as traders weigh a Supreme Court tariff decision and dollar softness. We break down what this means for Canadians, key levels, and the week’s catalysts.
S&P 500 snapshot and the Canada angle
The S&P 500 sits at 6,837.74, off 1.04% on the day, after opening at 6,901.25 and ranging between 6,819.82 and 6,916.96. The index is 2.35% below its record 7,002.28, with YTD down 0.28% but up 14.31% over one year. ATR of 80.58 points shows active daily swings. Bollinger mid is 6,908.76 and lower band 6,797.04, placing price near support.
For Canadians, U.S. risk drives the loonie, bank earnings sensitivity, and TSX cyclicals. A softer U.S. dollar often supports commodities, while weak equities can dampen cross‑listed financials. The truth social trump noise adds headline risk to timing decisions. Position sizes, CAD hedging, and sector balance matter most this week as U.S. growth, rates, and trade headlines feed into cross‑border cash flows.
Truth Social post, GDP data leak worries, and the Fed
A truth social trump post hinted at a soft GDP result before the official release, raising GDP data leak questions among traders. Markets quickly priced weaker growth risk and a steadier dollar path. The early hint was noted by major outlets, including CNBC source. For short‑term players, pre‑data signals can move futures, liquidity, and spreads even before 8:30 a.m. prints.
The report later confirmed 1.4% Q4 growth with firmer inflation, reinforcing a Fed on hold setup. That mix supports higher‑for‑longer short rates and a flatter cuts path, which often caps equity multiples while aiding bank net interest margins. Canadian readers can cross‑check growth context with local coverage at Global News source. Watch USD/CAD and two‑year yields for confirmation.
SCOTUS tariff ruling resets trade bets
A SCOTUS tariff ruling that overturns Trump‑era measures shifted risk tone. Lower trade frictions can help U.S. manufacturers and autos by trimming input costs, while pressuring companies that benefited from protective walls. Materials with global demand may catch a bid if supply chains improve. The truth social trump backdrop keeps political risk high, so we expect rotations to be fast and data‑dependent.
For Canada, the SCOTUS tariff ruling reduces uncertainty for exporters tied to U.S. demand. Railways, auto parts, machinery, and select chemicals could see steadier orders if pricing clarity improves. A softer dollar would aid commodity pricing, while a stronger loonie may weigh on exporters’ margins. We would fade outsized knee‑jerks and let prices settle before adding cyclicals on weakness.
Technical setup and levels for ^GSPC
Momentum is soft: RSI 44.81, MACD at -11.09 below its -3.75 signal, and ADX 16.55 shows no dominant trend. MFI is 34.42, hinting at light buying pressure. ATR at 80.58 implies wide daily bars. Awesome Oscillator at -52.10 and CCI -50.67 fit a mild pullback. In this context, we prefer staggered entries and tight risk controls around known levels.
We are watching 6,797 at the lower Bollinger band and 6,908 as the mid band. The 50‑day average is 6,896.08 and the 200‑day is 6,529.65, so the primary trend stays intact. Our model path centers near 6,865 this quarter and 7,067 for 12 months. With a C+ grade and Hold view, we’d buy dips near lower bands and trim into strength.
Final Thoughts
For Canadians, the setup is clear. A truth social trump stir, firmer inflation, and a SCOTUS tariff shift have pushed the S&P 500 into a choppy, level‑driven market. We would avoid big directional bets and focus on liquidity, CAD risk, and sector balance. Favor quality cyclicals and banks on pullbacks if USD softens and trade frictions ease. Keep tech and long‑duration exposure sized to volatility. Watch USD/CAD, two‑year yields, and weekly claims for confirmation. Use 6,797 to 6,908 as near guides, place stops outside ATR, and rebalance on closes rather than intraday spikes. Staying patient and price‑aware should add value this week.
FAQs
Did Trump’s post amount to a GDP data leak?
We cannot make a legal call. The timing raised GDP data leak concerns for traders, since markets moved before the release. Media flagged the early hint, and futures reacted. For investors, the lesson is to manage pre‑data risk with staggered orders and to avoid chasing thin liquidity into 8:30 a.m. prints during headline‑heavy weeks.
What does a Fed on hold mean for Canadians?
A Fed on hold keeps short rates elevated, which can slow multiple expansion and support bank margins. For Canadians, it can influence Bank of Canada timing, USD/CAD, and mortgage resets. It also favors cash yields and near‑term GICs. We prefer barbell exposure: quality cyclicals for upside and short‑duration bonds or T‑bills for stability.
How could the SCOTUS tariff ruling affect the TSX?
Lower trade frictions typically help exporters and supply chain plays. In Canada, that points to rails, auto parts, and select industrials. A softer U.S. dollar can boost commodities, though a stronger loonie may trim exporters’ margins. We would wait for spreads and freight rates to settle, then add on weakness to names with clean balance sheets.
What S&P 500 levels matter most this week?
We are watching 6,797 near the lower Bollinger band as first support, then 6,750. Resistance sits near 6,908 at the middle band and 6,950. The 50‑day average around 6,896 and the 200‑day near 6,530 frame the broader uptrend. Use ATR near 81 points to set stops beyond noise and size positions accordingly.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.