Ethereum USD Faces 37% Monthly Decline—Can ETHUSD Hold $1491 Support?
Ethereum USD (ETHUSD) is trading at $1920.67 as of February 25, 2026, down 0.21% today but showing significant weakness over longer timeframes. The cryptocurrency has declined 37.21% over the past month, testing critical support levels amid broader market pressure. ETHUSD technical indicators reveal oversold conditions with RSI at 28.41, suggesting potential reversal opportunities. Understanding the current ETHUSD price action requires examining both technical signals and market fundamentals. This analysis explores what’s driving Ethereum’s recent performance and what traders should monitor going forward.
Why Is ETHUSD Declining? Recent Catalyst and Market Context
Recent on-chain data shows Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin liquidated over 10,723 ETH worth approximately $21.7 million, contributing to selling pressure on ETHUSD. This large transaction occurred as the broader cryptocurrency market faced headwinds, with Ethereum experiencing its steepest declines in months. The ETHUSD price has fallen from its 50-day average of $2,590.92 to current levels, representing a significant shift in market sentiment.
Market participants are questioning whether insider selling signals reduced confidence in Ethereum’s near-term prospects. The timing of these sales coincides with ETHUSD testing support levels not seen since earlier in the year. Trading volume remains elevated at 32.4 million, though below the 226 million average, indicating selective participation rather than panic selling.
ETHUSD Technical Analysis: Oversold Signals and Key Levels
The RSI indicator at 28.41 places ETHUSD in deeply oversold territory, typically below the 30 threshold that signals extreme selling pressure. MACD shows a bearish configuration with the signal line at -257.95 and histogram at 6.45, indicating momentum remains negative despite slight histogram improvement. ADX at 48.83 confirms a strong downtrend is in place, meaning the selling pressure has conviction behind it.
Bollinger Bands reveal ETHUSD trading near the lower band at $1,491.53, with the middle band at $2,138.00 representing significant resistance overhead. Support levels are critical: the $1,491.53 lower band and the year-low of $1,383.26 define the downside boundary. Resistance forms at the 50-day moving average of $2,590.92 and the 200-day average of $3,478.27, both well above current price action.
ETHUSD Price Forecast: Monthly, Quarterly, and Yearly Targets
Monthly forecasts suggest ETHUSD could test $1,370.11, representing a 28.6% decline from current levels if selling continues. This target aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and represents a potential capitulation point where oversold conditions become extreme. Quarterly forecasts show ETHUSD recovering to $2,731.37, implying a 42.2% rebound from monthly lows if support holds.
Yearly forecasts place ETHUSD at $2,960.01, suggesting recovery toward the 50-day moving average by end of 2026. Three-year projections reach $3,090.73, indicating long-term recovery potential despite current weakness. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events. These targets assume stabilization at support levels and gradual accumulation as oversold conditions attract buyers.
Market Sentiment: Trading Activity and Liquidation Pressure
Trading volume at 32.4 million sits 85.7% below the 226 million average, indicating reduced participation and potential capitulation selling. The relative volume of 1.52 shows current activity is elevated compared to recent sessions, suggesting traders are actively positioning around support levels. Money Flow Index at 55.06 remains neutral, neither confirming strong buying nor selling pressure.
Liquidation data shows the market has absorbed significant selling without triggering cascading liquidations, a positive sign for stability. The year-to-date decline of 38.29% reflects sustained pressure, yet the year-high of $4,955.90 demonstrates ETHUSD’s volatility range. Current price action near the lower Bollinger Band suggests institutional buyers may be accumulating at these depressed levels.
What Drives ETHUSD Recovery? Catalysts and Resistance Zones
Recovery in ETHUSD depends on stabilization above the $1,491.53 support level and potential reversal signals from oversold indicators. Historical data shows RSI below 30 often precedes sharp bounces, though timing remains uncertain. Positive catalysts could include Ethereum network upgrades, institutional buying at discounted prices, or broader cryptocurrency market recovery.
Resistance at $2,138.00 (middle Bollinger Band) represents the first meaningful hurdle for recovery. Breaking above this level would signal trend reversal and potentially attract momentum buyers. The 50-day moving average at $2,590.92 remains the key psychological level that would confirm sustained recovery. Failure to hold $1,491.53 support could accelerate declines toward the year-low of $1,383.26.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum USD at $1920.67 reflects significant weakness with ETHUSD down 37.21% monthly and trading near critical support levels. Technical indicators show extreme oversold conditions with RSI at 28.41, suggesting potential reversal opportunities for contrarian traders. The recent large ETH sale by Vitalik Buterin adds uncertainty, though reduced trading volume indicates selective rather than panic selling. ETHUSD price forecasts range from $1,370.11 monthly to $2,960.01 yearly, reflecting the wide range of potential outcomes. Key support at $1,491.53 and resistance at $2,138.00 define the near-term trading range. Market participants should monitor whether ETHUSD stabilizes at oversold levels or continues testing lower support. The combination of technical oversold signals and reduced volume suggests the market may be approaching a potential inflection point, though confirmation requires price action above key resistance levels.
FAQs
ETHUSD declined due to broader cryptocurrency market weakness and recent large ETH sales by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. On-chain data showed liquidation of over 10,700 ETH, contributing to selling pressure. Technical factors including RSI oversold conditions and strong downtrend (ADX 48.83) reinforced the decline.
Yes, RSI at 28.41 indicates extreme oversold conditions, typically below 30. Bollinger Bands show ETHUSD trading near the lower band at $1,491.53. Historically, such oversold readings often precede bounces, though timing and magnitude remain uncertain.
Yearly forecast targets $2,960.01, representing 54.2% upside from current levels. Quarterly forecast shows $2,731.37, while monthly forecast suggests $1,370.11 if selling continues. Three-year projections reach $3,090.73, indicating long-term recovery potential.
Critical support sits at $1,491.53 (lower Bollinger Band) and $1,383.26 (year-low). Resistance forms at $2,138.00 (middle Bollinger Band) and $2,590.92 (50-day moving average). Breaking above $2,590.92 would signal sustained recovery.
RSI at 28.41 is deeply oversold, historically preceding bounces. MACD histogram at 6.45 shows slight improvement. ADX at 48.83 confirms strong trend, meaning reversals can be sharp. Reduced volume suggests capitulation rather than panic selling.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.