Ethereum USD Drops 34% YTD—Can ETHUSD Find Support at $1,464?

Ethereum USD (ETHUSD) is trading at $1,948.16 as of February 23, 2026, down 34.29% year-to-date. The second-largest cryptocurrency faces significant headwinds with a $237.6 billion market cap and declining momentum across multiple timeframes. ETHUSD technical indicators reveal oversold conditions, but a strong downtrend persists. Understanding the current ETHUSD price action and technical setup is critical for traders monitoring this major crypto asset. We’ll examine the technical landscape, price forecasts, and what support levels matter most.

ETHUSD Technical Analysis

The ETHUSD technical picture shows mixed signals with bearish dominance. RSI sits at 31.64, indicating oversold conditions where selling pressure may ease, though the asset remains in a downtrend. MACD is deeply negative at -256.77 with a signal line at -259.25, suggesting bearish momentum continues without immediate reversal signals.

ADX reads 46.87, confirming a strong downtrend in place. Bollinger Bands position ETHUSD near the lower band at $1,464.64, which acts as a critical support level. The upper band sits at $3,035.15, showing the wide range between current price and resistance. Stochastic oscillators (%K at 29.25, %D at 24.13) confirm oversold territory, historically a zone where bounces occur.

ETHUSD Price Forecast

Monthly forecasts suggest ETHUSD could test $1,370.11, representing a -29.7% decline from current levels if selling continues. This level would mark a new 2026 low and test psychological support. Quarterly outlook shows recovery potential to $2,731.37, a +40.2% move that would require trend reversal and sustained buying pressure.

Yearly forecasts target $2,960.01, implying a +51.9% annual gain if ETHUSD stabilizes and recovers. Three-year projections reach $3,090.73, suggesting long-term recovery above current resistance zones. These forecasts assume market stabilization and reduced selling pressure. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.

Market Sentiment and Trading Activity

ETHUSD volume stands at 17.38 billion against an average of 278.5 million, showing relative volume of 0.99x. This indicates below-average trading activity despite the significant price decline, suggesting limited conviction in either direction. The 50-day moving average sits at $2,683.73, well above current price, confirming the downtrend’s severity.

Liquidation data shows weakness across leverage positions. The 200-day moving average at $3,514.14 represents major resistance that ETHUSD must reclaim for trend reversal. Year-to-date losses of 34.29% have likely triggered stop-losses and margin calls, contributing to the downward spiral. Market sentiment remains cautious with limited institutional buying interest at current levels.

Support and Resistance Levels for ETHUSD

Critical support emerges at the $1,464.64 Bollinger Band lower level, where oversold bounces typically occur. Breaking below this level opens the path to $1,383.26, the 52-week low. The $1,905.12 daily low provides intermediate support, tested multiple times recently.

Resistance begins at $1,986.59, the daily high, followed by $2,249.90 (Bollinger Band middle). The 50-day moving average at $2,683.73 represents major resistance where sellers have historically emerged. Above that, the $3,035.15 upper Bollinger Band and 200-day average at $3,514.14 define longer-term resistance zones. Year-high at $4,955.90 remains a distant target requiring sustained recovery.

What’s Driving ETHUSD Lower?

ETHUSD’s decline reflects broader cryptocurrency market weakness and reduced institutional demand. The 34.29% YTD loss correlates with regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds affecting risk assets. Ethereum’s network activity and developer sentiment have not kept pace with price recovery expectations, limiting upside catalysts.

Technical factors amplify selling pressure. The strong ADX reading of 46.87 confirms trend strength, meaning momentum traders continue shorting ETHUSD. Negative MACD histogram at 2.48 shows bearish momentum without bullish crossover signals. Until these technical indicators reverse, ETHUSD faces structural headwinds despite oversold RSI readings.

Final Thoughts

ETHUSD trades at $1,948.16 with significant technical weakness and a 34.29% year-to-date decline. Technical analysis reveals oversold RSI at 31.64 paired with a strong downtrend (ADX 46.87), creating conflicting signals. Support at $1,464.64 (lower Bollinger Band) and $1,383.26 (52-week low) define downside risk, while resistance at $2,683.73 (50-day MA) blocks recovery attempts. Monthly forecasts suggest potential weakness to $1,370.11, while yearly targets reach $2,960.01 assuming stabilization. Volume remains below average at 0.99x, indicating limited conviction in either direction. Traders should monitor the $1,464.64 support level closely—a break below triggers further downside, while a hold could spark an oversold bounce. The broader question remains whether ETHUSD finds a bottom here or tests lower levels before recovery begins.

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Disclaimer:

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.