DOL.TO Dollarama TSX down C$8.43 24 Mar 2026: Q4 meets guidance, Australian drag

Shares of Dollarama Inc. (DOL.TO stock) slid to C$172.21 intraday on 24 Mar 2026, down C$8.43 or -4.67% after the Q4 and fiscal 2026 report. Management said Fiscal 2026 guidance was met or exceeded, but investors focused on margin pressure from the newly acquired Australian business. The quarter showed C$2,101.30 million in sales and C$1.43 EPS for Q4, with fiscal EPS of C$4.73, driving active intraday trading volume of 804,466 shares on the TSX.

Q4 results and market reaction: DOL.TO stock

Dollarama reported Q4 sales of C$2,101.30 million and diluted EPS of C$1.43. The market reacted to margin headwinds tied to the Australian segment, sending DOL.TO stock down -4.67% intraday. The company also announced a 13.4% dividend increase and continued its NCIB share buybacks.

Financials and margins: DOL.TO stock analysis

Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 13.10% to C$7,255.80 million and diluted EPS increased 13.70% to C$4.73. Gross margin was 45.0% for the year, while Q4 gross margin fell to 45.5% due to Australia, squeezing quarterly EBITDA margin to 33.9%. DOL.TO stock trades at a trailing PE of 39.70 and shows operating cash flow per share of 6.30, highlighting strong cash generation despite margin pressure.

Canada versus Australia: DOL.TO stock outlook

Canada remains the core growth engine with comparable store sales up 4.2% for Fiscal 2026. The Australian segment contributed C$454.80 million in annual sales but reduced margins by roughly 140 basis points for the year. Management expects Australia to incur a net loss in Fiscal 2027 while it integrates operations and renovates stores, a near-term headwind for DOL.TO stock performance.

Valuation and technicals: DOL.TO stock metrics

Key valuation metrics: PE 39.70, price-to-sales 7.24, price-to-free-cash-flow 34.34, and market cap C$51.08 billion. Technical indicators show RSI 41.06 and MACD histogram negative, signaling short-term weakness. Daily range was C$170.10–C$183.42, with average volume 648,391. These metrics frame why some analysts paused after earnings despite bullish longer-term views.

Capital returns, guidance and Meyka grade: DOL.TO stock

Dollarama announced C$834.20 million in share repurchases during Fiscal 2026 and raised the quarterly dividend to C$0.1200. Management provided Canadian comparable-sales guidance of 3.0%–4.0% for Fiscal 2027. Meyka AI rates DOL.TO with a score out of 100: 77.49/100, Grade B+, Suggestion: BUY. This grade factors in S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a 12-month target of C$246.72, implying upside versus the current C$172.21, though forecasts are not guarantees.

Final Thoughts

Dollarama’s Q4 and Fiscal 2026 results met guidance and showed steady top-line growth, but DOL.TO stock fell on margin pressure from the Australian rollout. The core Canadian business remains resilient, with Fiscal 2026 comparable store sales up 4.2% and strong free cash flow of C$5.40 per share. The near-term risk is execution in Australia and the incremental SG&A and integration costs management flagged for Fiscal 2027. Analysts remain mixed; consensus targets cluster near C$217.08, while Meyka AI’s forecast model projects C$246.72, an implied upside of 43.29% from the current C$172.21. Investors should weigh short-term margin uncertainty against long-term franchise strength, the company’s share repurchase cadence, and the new dividend level. Meyka AI, an AI-powered market analysis platform, highlights that these model projections are not guarantees and recommends monitoring execution on Australian integration and Canadian store growth.

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Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.