Carlsberg Misses First-Half Forecasts and Warns of Tough Year Ahead

Market News

Carlsberg has fallen short of expectations in the first half of 2025. The Danish brewer reported weaker sales and profits than analysts predicted, showing how tough the beer market has become this year. We see this happening at a time when inflation is still pushing up costs for ingredients, packaging, and transport. Consumers are also changing how they spend, and that’s reshaping the industry.

This isn’t just about one company missing its targets. It’s a snapshot of a bigger challenge facing global brewers in 2025,  balancing rising costs with shifting demand. Carlsberg’s latest numbers tell us where the pressure points are, and why the rest of the year could remain challenging for beer makers everywhere.

First-Half 2025 Financial Performance

Revenue & Profit Figures

In the first half of 2025, Carlsberg reported an organic operating profit of 7.23 billion crowns, which is about US $1.13 billion (at the rate of 6.38 crowns per dollar).
This growth of 2.3 percent was shy of expectations. Analysts had expected 7.35 billion crowns.

Regional Performance Breakdown

While not broken down in full detail, Carlsberg did note subdued demand in China, its largest market, where volumes have weakened. The brewer said there’s very low consumer spending in bars and restaurants there.

Operational Factors Affecting Results

Carlsberg pointed to inflation and economic uncertainty as key challenges. Rising costs, from raw materials to energy, have weighed on consumers and squeezed margins.

Reasons Behind the Forecast Miss

Inflation & Cost Pressures

Inflation is squeezing margins. Rising costs for barley, packaging materials, and transportation are increasing the strain. The company noted that economic uncertainty is curbing consumer spending.

Consumer Demand Shifts

Consumers are spending less on beer, especially in premium segments. In China, Carlsberg said demand remains very weak, especially in on-trade venues like bars and restaurants.

Competitive Landscape

Carlsberg’s rivals, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Heineken, also missed forecasts recently. All big brewers are facing weaker demand, tariffs, and weather issues. Carlsberg is watching these trends closely.

Strategic Actions in H1 2025

Cost Optimization Measures

Carlsberg is relying on strict cost control and efficient management to navigate the challenging market conditions. They believe this approach justifies raising their profit growth outlook.

Product Portfolio Strategy

The company is expanding non-alcoholic and soft drink offerings. Their 2025 acquisition of Britvic, including brands like 7Up, supports this pivot. Currently, around half of Carlsberg’s revenue is generated from low- or alcohol-free products.

Distribution & Digital Expansion

Although not spelled out in detail, Carlsberg’s shift toward non-alcoholic drinks suggests a broader strategic shift, including potential digital or alternative distribution approaches.

Competitor & Industry Context

Peer Performance Comparison

Many major brewers are reporting similar struggles. Heineken and Anheuser-Busch InBev have likewise missed their performance targets. Carlsberg’s move to slightly raise its forecast contrasts with its rivals, who maintained flat outlooks amid ongoing challenges.

In China, a key battleground, consumer demand is weak. Carlsberg noted that the market shrank 4–5 percent in 2024 and continues to struggle. At the same time, global trade tensions and tariffs add to market uncertainty.

Risks & Challenges Ahead

  • Consumer spending is likely to remain weak throughout the rest of 2025.
  • Higher costs remain a consistent threat due to inflation.
  • China’s market remains fragile, with no clear signs of recovery.
  • Global trade uncertainty, tariffs, and geopolitical tension can impact supply and demand.

Conclusion

Carlsberg’s operating profit grew 2.3% in H1 to 7.23 billion crowns, missing expectations, while sales volumes declined by 1.7%. The brewer now expects annual profit growth of 3–5 percent, up from 1–5 percent, thanks to strong cost control. Yet the outlook remains tough. We do not expect consumer demand to improve this year. Rising costs, weak markets, especially in China, and global trade pressures mean Carlsberg must manage carefully through a challenging landscape.

Disclaimer:

This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your research.