BTCUSD Today, February 4: Rout Erases Nearly $500B as Liquidations Mount

The Bitcoin price is sliding as a broad crypto rout deepens. At our last check, BTCUSD traded near $78,648 USD, down 6.94% on the day, with volatility spiking. Derivatives liquidations and accelerating ETF outflows are pressuring bids, while fewer expected Fed cuts and the recent RBA hike weaken risk appetite in Australia. We break down the drivers, the key chart levels, and what this means for local investors who price returns in AUD and trade across overlapping US and Asia sessions.

What’s driving today’s crypto rout

High leverage is amplifying losses. As prices slip, forced selling triggers more stops and margin calls, creating a feedback loop. The latest wave helped erase nearly $500 billion from crypto markets in a week, according to a Bloomberg report. For traders, this means wider spreads, faster moves, and slippage risk. We see caution on position size and stricter risk rules as essential.

Spot ETF outflows remove a steady source of demand, turning net flows negative on weak days. That pushes the Bitcoin price lower as market makers hedge and redeem. As noted by the Australian Financial Review, the four‑month slide is now weighing on broader markets source. With the RBA tightening and fewer expected Fed cuts, risk assets, including crypto, remain vulnerable to more selling.

Where the Bitcoin price sits now

The Bitcoin price trades near $78,648 USD, off 6.94% today, between an intraday low of $75,644 and high of $84,138. It sits below the 50‑day average at $89,814 and the 200‑day at $104,526, confirming a downtrend. RSI is 48.91, near neutral, while ADX at 25.89 signals a firm trend. Price is below the Bollinger lower band at $84,209, showing stretched conditions.

ATR at 3,253 highlights wide intraday ranges, and Keltner lower at $83,600 is above spot, underscoring downside extension. Turnover is heavy, with volume at 1.17 billion versus a 0.66 billion average. OBV remains weak, reflecting persistent distribution. The Bitcoin price can whip quickly around levels, so we prefer staggered entries and predefined exits over market chasing.

What it means for Australian investors

Higher RBA rates lift funding costs for leveraged traders, which matters during drawdowns. AUD swings can add or reduce local returns since BTC trades in USD, so hedging or keeping a cash buffer helps. Be mindful of local tax on disposals and staking income. We prefer clear records and regular P&L checks in AUD.

Liquidity tends to peak into US hours, while local mornings can gap after overnight moves. We like smaller position sizes during a crypto rout, wider stops sized by ATR, and the use of limit orders. If investing, dollar‑cost averaging reduces timing risk. Always anchor plans to key levels and daily closing signals.

Scenarios and watchlist

Watch daily ETF flow prints, derivatives funding, and open interest for stress signals. Macro remains key. Fewer expected Fed cuts and the RBA’s recent hike keep the policy backdrop tight, which weighs on the Bitcoin price. Also track stablecoin flows and on‑chain transfers from large wallets for early signs of capitulation or support.

Near term, $74,421 is the 1‑year low. Holding above that could see mean reversion toward $84,200 to $88,700, the Bollinger middle at $88,709. A breakdown risks a test of the $70,000 round figure. On strength, the monthly model points to $92,791. These are scenarios, not guarantees, so risk limits come first.

Final Thoughts

The selloff reflects two forces hitting together, derivatives liquidations and ETF outflows. With policy settings tight and liquidity patchy, the Bitcoin price can overshoot both ways before finding balance. For Australian investors, we think discipline matters more than conviction. Use position sizes you can carry through volatile nights, set stops using actual volatility, and avoid market orders in thin moments. Track ETF flows, funding rates, and daily closes against the 50‑day and Bollinger bands to judge trend strength. If investing, a staged plan with clear review points can reduce regret. Patience and process tend to beat headline chasing during stress.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.