BTCUSD Today, February 4: Glassnode Cost Basis Crossover Signals Shift

BTCUSD is in focus today as Glassnode points to a possible cost basis crossover between 1‑month and 6‑month holders. We break down what BTCUSD is signaling, how realized market cap and HODL Waves confirm trends, and what it means for Aussie traders. Price sits near $78,648 after a $75,644–$84,138 range, with volatility still high. We outline data to watch before re‑entry, plus practical levels, risk checks, and a simple plan for local accounts.

Glassnode Cost Basis Crossover: What It Implies

The 1‑month holder cost basis tracks recent buyers, while the 6‑month line reflects medium‑term holders. When the short‑term basis rises toward or above the 6‑month basis, it often marks capitulation ending and fresh momentum. For BTCUSD, a near‑term rise shows buyers absorbing supply at lower prices. A clean cross with follow‑through has, in past cycles, aligned with improving demand and price stabilization.

Glassnode notes the 1‑month vs 6‑month bases are nearing a crossover, hinting at a momentum shift. Confirmation needs sustained strength and higher lows. Traders should watch whether the spread turns positive and holds for several sessions. For context and chart views, see this update from Glassnode coverage on blockchain.news.

Realized Market Cap and HODL Waves In Focus

Realized market cap values coins at their last on‑chain move price, showing what holders actually paid. In recoveries, this metric trends higher as coins reprice upward. A flat or falling line can signal weak demand. For a plain‑English explainer of realized cap and HODL Waves, review this guide on Filmogaz. BTCUSD bulls want steady realized cap expansion with rising on‑chain activity.

HODL Waves show the share of supply by coin age. After stress, we look for growth in the 1–3 month bands as new buyers enter and older coins stay parked. If younger bands expand while older bands remain stable, it suggests healthier rotation. For BTCUSD, that mix would back the cost basis signal and point to improving breadth in the next leg.

Price Action and Technical Readings

BTC trades near $78,648, off 6.94% on the day, within a $75,644–$84,138 range. Market cap sits around $1.67 trillion. Price is below the 50‑day ($89,813.60) and 200‑day ($104,526.08) averages, so the medium trend is still soft. For BTCUSD, nearby levels include support at $75,644 and $74,420.69, with resistance at $84,138 and the Bollinger middle band at $88,709.

RSI at 48.91 is neutral. MACD is below signal, but a positive histogram hints at waning downside. ADX at 25.89 shows a firm, not extreme, trend. Bollinger lower band sits near $84,209 and Keltner middle near $90,105; mean reversion targets lie there if bids improve. ATR of 3,252 suggests wide swings, so BTCUSD risk sizing should reflect larger daily ranges.

Strategy For Australian Investors

Wait for the 1‑month cost basis to cross and hold above the 6‑month line, a rising realized market cap, and HODL Waves showing growth in 1–3 month bands. Add a price higher low above $75,644 and a close back over the 50‑day average. If those align, BTCUSD has a stronger case for staged buys rather than one‑shot entries.

Use position sizing tied to ATR. For example, set stops 1–1.5x ATR below entry when trend confirms, and scale in with AUD‑based DCA to reduce timing risk. Keep records for ATO capital gains events on each sale or swap. Focus on liquid AUD pairs or reputable ETF access, and avoid over‑leverage during volatile sessions.

Final Thoughts

Glassnode’s pending cost basis crossover points to a potential shift, but confirmation needs more than one metric. We want to see realized market cap trend higher, HODL Waves show fresh 1–3 month supply, and price reclaim key levels. Right now, BTCUSD sits below its 50‑day and 200‑day averages with wide daily ranges, so patience and sizing matter. A simple plan is to wait for the crossover to hold, target closes back over the 50‑day, and scale in using AUD cash flows. Keep stops wide enough for volatility, and review on‑chain data weekly for follow‑through.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.