BTCUSD Today: February 02 Hits Lows Since 2025 Tariff Shock as Confidence Wanes

The bitcoin price fell below $80,000 today, its lowest since the 2025 tariff shock, as politics and rates rattled risk assets. Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh for the Fed reset expectations for tighter policy, pressuring crypto. BTCUSD last traded near $78,648, down 6.94% on heavy turnover. For Hong Kong investors, most platforms quote in USD, so moves translate one-for-one under the USD–HKD peg. The sub-$80k break flags fragile sentiment and higher intraday volatility.

What triggered today’s slide

Kevin Warsh’s potential move to the Fed is seen as stricter on inflation, prompting a repricing of rate cuts and liquidity. That hit risk appetite and the bitcoin price. Reports highlighted the break below $80,000 and links to the policy shift by Warsh, shaking confidence across crypto markets source and source.

A crisis of confidence resurfaced as traders questioned near-term buyers after the 2025 tariff shock playbook repeated. The bitcoin price is sensitive to policy risk, and the combination of rate uncertainty and macro headlines reduced risk-taking. Spot liquidity thinned around key levels, making moves faster and larger. Until policy signals settle, rallies may fade faster than usual.

Levels and technicals HK traders watch

Price sits near $78,648 after a day low of $75,644.15 and high of $84,138. It trades about 12% below the 50-day average of $89,813.60 and about 25% below the 200-day at $104,526.08. The bitcoin price is roughly 38% under the $126,296 year high. These gaps show bears in control unless price reclaims $80,000 and $89,800.

ATR is 3,252.65, indicating wide ranges. Bollinger Bands show a middle at 88,709.05 and lower at 84,208.69, with price below the band, signaling stretched downside. Keltner lower sits at 83,600.01. ADX reads 25.89, a strong trend. RSI is 48.91, not oversold. MACD lines are negative, but the histogram is positive, keeping momentum mixed.

Liquidity, volumes, and Asia hours

Turnover is heavy at 1.17 billion versus a 658 million average, aligning with a break-day pattern. On-balance volume is deeply negative at -1,048,245,223,372, reflecting prior distribution pressure. The bitcoin price often reacts sharply when liquidity thins around round numbers. Today’s sub-$80k sweep triggered stops, widening spreads and reinforcing the selloff before dip buyers showed.

Most Hong Kong platforms quote BTC in USD or stablecoins, so local traders follow the bitcoin price tick-for-tick. Given the USD–HKD peg, HKD exposure maps closely to USD outcomes. Volatility often spikes into the US session, but HK morning moves can be sharp after overnight headlines. Consider using limit orders and wider stops when ranges expand.

Scenarios and strategy thoughts

BTC below $80k keeps the focus on $75,644 intraday low and $74,420 year low. A close back above $80,000 would target $84,138, then the 50-day near $89,813 and the Bollinger middle at 88,709. Model projections point to $92,791 one month, $95,894 one year, and $145,676 in five years. Treat these as scenarios, not guarantees.

We suggest keeping position sizes smaller while volatility stays elevated. Use alerts at $80,000, $84,000, and $89,800. Place stops where your thesis fails, not at round numbers. Consider staggered entries to reduce timing risk. Keep a cash or stablecoin buffer for stress days. Review counterparty risk on platforms and enable two-factor security.

Final Thoughts

Today’s move put the bitcoin price at its weakest since the 2025 tariff shock, with Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed leadership shifting rate expectations and shaking risk appetite. For Hong Kong traders, we see three priorities. First, respect the sub-$80k break and watch $75,644 and $74,420 as the next downside markers. Second, know the recovery map: $80,000, $84,138, and the 50-day near $89,814. Third, tighten process. Use limit orders, pre-set alerts, and smaller sizing while ATR stays elevated. Keep attention on upcoming policy headlines and liquidity around round numbers, and be ready to adapt if price reclaims key levels.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.