BTCUSD Bitcoin USD Extends Losses to -0.97% as Margin Longs Signal Capitulation Risk
Bitcoin USD (BTCUSD) is trading at $78,648 as of February 5, 2026, down 0.97% in the last 24 hours and extending its weekly decline to 6.04%. The cryptocurrency has fallen from its year high of $126,296 to current levels, reflecting sustained selling pressure across digital assets. Market data shows margin long positions on Bitfinex have climbed to 77,100 BTC—the highest level since December 2023—suggesting large holders are accumulating during the correction. This contrarian signal historically appears near price bottoms, though BTCUSD has yet to establish a definitive floor. Understanding the technical setup and market sentiment is critical for tracking whether this decline represents a temporary pullback or a deeper correction.
BTCUSD Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis
The technical picture reveals mixed signals with neutral momentum indicators. RSI stands at 48.91, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, suggesting the selling pressure has not yet reached extreme levels. MACD shows a bearish signal with the histogram at 721.64 and signal line at -967.46, pointing to weakening upside momentum.
ADX measures trend strength at 25.89, confirming a strong downtrend is in place. Bollinger Bands position price near the middle band at $88,709, with support at $84,208 and resistance at $93,209. The price currently sits below the 50-day moving average of $89,813 and well below the 200-day average of $104,526, reinforcing the bearish intermediate-term structure.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Leveraged long positions on Bitfinex have surged to their highest level in over two years, with 77,100 BTC in margin longs. This buildup coincides with Bitcoin falling nearly 50% from its October peak, creating a contrarian setup where large holders are buying weakness. Historically, such accumulation has preceded price bottoms during previous market stress events, including the FTX collapse in November 2022 and the August 2024 carry-trade unwind.
Trading volume remains elevated at 1.17 billion USD daily, 1.88 times the 90-day average, indicating active participation despite the downtrend. However, liquidation activity has intensified across derivatives markets, with over $19 billion in crypto liquidations recorded as prices fell below $67,000 earlier in the week. This suggests retail and undercapitalized traders are being forced out of positions.
BTCUSD Bitcoin USD Price Forecast
Monthly Forecast: $92,791 represents a +18.0% gain from current levels, suggesting a near-term recovery bounce if support holds. Quarterly Forecast: $125,516.64 implies a +59.6% rally, returning to levels near the October all-time high if macro conditions stabilize. Yearly Forecast: $95,894 projects a +21.9% advance, reflecting modest upside from current consolidation levels.
Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events. The wide range between monthly and quarterly targets reflects uncertainty around macroeconomic headwinds, including tariff concerns and potential regulatory shifts. Support at $84,208 (Bollinger Band lower) and $75,644 (day low) are critical levels to monitor for trend confirmation.
Liquidation Pressure and On-Chain Dynamics
Liquidation cascades have accelerated as Bitcoin fell below key psychological levels, with $19 billion in total crypto liquidations recorded during recent selloffs. Long liquidations dominated, suggesting leveraged buyers were caught off-guard by the speed of the decline. This forced selling can create temporary capitulation, often preceding relief rallies as weak hands exit positions.
On-chain metrics show mixed signals. The Money Flow Index at 47.98 indicates neutral buying and selling pressure, while the Awesome Oscillator at 2,242.61 suggests momentum remains positive despite price weakness. These divergences often precede trend reversals, though confirmation requires price action above the 50-day moving average at $89,813.
Macro Headwinds and Regulatory Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s decline reflects broader risk-asset weakness tied to tariff concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty. According to CoinDesk reporting, margin long positions suggest institutional buyers expect a bottom, but the position may not yet signal a definitive price floor. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent comments on crypto regulation have added uncertainty, though clarity on the Crypto Clarity Act could provide a positive catalyst.
Historically, Bitcoin has recovered from similar corrections within 3-6 months, but the current macro environment remains fluid. The 200-day moving average at $104,526 represents significant resistance on any recovery attempt, requiring sustained buying pressure to overcome.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD is navigating a critical juncture as margin long positions reach two-year highs while price remains under pressure. The technical setup shows a strong downtrend with support at $84,208, though RSI at 48.91 suggests selling has not reached capitulation extremes. Market sentiment data reveals a contrarian signal: large holders are accumulating during weakness, historically a precursor to price bottoms. However, the current buildup in leveraged longs may not yet signal a definitive floor, as liquidation activity continues to intensify. The monthly forecast of $92,791 and quarterly target of $125,516 suggest meaningful upside if support holds, but macro headwinds including tariff concerns and regulatory uncertainty remain headwinds. Traders should monitor the $84,208 support level and the 50-day moving average at $89,813 for trend confirmation. The next 2-4 weeks will be critical in determining whether this correction represents a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper bear market phase.
FAQs
Bitcoin fell 0.97% on February 5, 2026, extending a broader weekly decline of 6.04%. The selloff reflects macro headwinds including tariff concerns, regulatory uncertainty, and liquidation cascades in derivatives markets. Despite the decline, margin long positions on Bitfinex have surged to two-year highs, suggesting institutional buyers view current levels as attractive.
The yearly forecast targets $95,894, representing a 21.9% gain from current levels. The quarterly forecast is $125,516, near October’s all-time high. These targets assume macro conditions stabilize and support at $84,208 holds. Forecasts may change due to regulatory shifts or unexpected market events.
RSI at 48.91 indicates neutral conditions, not oversold extremes. However, the price sits below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming a strong downtrend. Support at $84,208 (Bollinger Band lower) is the key level to watch for potential reversal signals.
Margin longs at 77,100 BTC are the highest since December 2023, suggesting large holders are accumulating during the correction. Historically, this contrarian signal has preceded price bottoms, but the current buildup may not yet signal a definitive floor as liquidations continue.
The 50-day moving average at $89,813 is the first resistance, followed by the Bollinger Band upper at $93,209. The quarterly forecast target of $125,516 represents longer-term resistance near the October all-time high of $126,296.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.