BRSL Stock Today: February 24 – Q4 Beat, 5% 2026 Growth Guide
BRSL stock today is in focus after Brightstar posted a Q4 revenue of US$668 million, up 3%, and adjusted EBITDA of US$304 million, up 5%. Management raised the quarterly dividend to US$0.23 and guided 2026 revenue to US$2.50–US$2.55 billion with EBITDA of US$1.16–US$1.19 billion, pointing to 5%+ organic growth despite Italy Lotto fee headwinds. We break down what matters for Canadian investors, including valuation, dividend buybacks, leverage, and near‑term trading levels following the February 24 earnings update.
Brightstar earnings: Q4 results and dividend move
Brightstar reported Q4 revenue of US$668 million, up 3% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of US$304 million, up 5%. Management framed the quarter as a beat, supported by steady instant ticket demand and resilient draw games. The update arrived with today’s results for February 24. We see the mix of modest growth and margin discipline as supportive for sentiment and price discovery in the near term.
The regular dividend rose to US$0.23 per share quarterly. At today’s US$13.72 close, that annualizes to US$0.92 and a yield near 6.7%. Management reiterated plans for US$1 billion plus in 2025 shareholder returns through dividend buybacks, signaling confidence in cash generation. For income‑focused Canadians, the higher payout is notable, though the dividend is paid in U.S. dollars and will translate into Canadian dollars at prevailing FX rates.
Management highlighted deleveraging to about 2.4x net leverage. On our data, interest coverage is roughly 3.8x and the current ratio sits near 0.74, so balance sheet progress remains important. With working capital tight and capex needs meaningful, execution on free cash flow will be key to sustain the dividend and repurchases while continuing to pay down debt.
2026 outlook: 5% growth despite Italy Lotto license fees
For 2026, Brightstar guided revenue to US$2.50–US$2.55 billion and EBITDA to US$1.16–US$1.19 billion, implying 5% plus organic growth. Drivers include digital instant adoption, improved retail activation, and steady systems contracts. The tone suggests operational momentum can offset cost pressures, while capital returns continue. Management also pointed to a perceived valuation discount versus lottery peers as a potential support for the equity.
The Italy Lotto license fee structure is a known headwind that may trim margins as costs step up. Management sees growth in digital channels and efficiency gains as partial offsets. We think investors should track unit economics in Italy and any contract or pricing adjustments. Clear disclosures on fee timing and magnitude will shape how 2026 EBITDA ranges translate into free cash flow.
On trailing figures, Brightstar trades near 5.6x EV/EBITDA, with price to sales about 1.0x, while management argues for a discount versus lottery peers. We see catalysts in dividend buybacks execution, deleveraging progress, and potential contract wins. For additional context on the setup and commentary, see TradingView’s summary of results here.
BRSL stock today: price, technicals, and levels to watch
BRSL closed at US$13.72, up 5.13% on the day, with volume of 2.43 million versus a 1.60 million average. The 52‑week range is US$13.10 to US$18.57. For Canadian investors, note that quotes, yields, and dividends are in U.S. dollars. Liquidity looks healthy today, which often supports tighter spreads around news and can help price discovery after earnings.
RSI near 44 suggests neutral momentum, while ADX around 31 indicates a firm trend. Price sits between the Bollinger middle band at US$13.94 and the upper band at US$14.76. The 50‑day and 200‑day averages are US$14.78 and US$15.73. We see near‑term support around US$13.11 and resistance near US$14.76, then the 50‑day average at US$14.78.
Model outputs point to a one‑month projection of US$16.14, a three‑month baseline near US$13.55, and a one‑year level around US$9.89. These are directional, not advice, and can shift with fundamentals and rates. For a pre‑earnings view of core trends under scrutiny, see Investing.com’s preview here.
What Canadian investors should consider now
The increased dividend pays in U.S. dollars, so CAD income will vary with FX. At today’s price, the yield is about 6.7% before any fees or taxes. Account type and broker can affect outcomes, so check your setup. If you target income, watch ex‑dividend dates, payout sustainability, and any signals on buyback pacing that may support per‑share cash flow.
Key risks include leverage and rate sensitivity, with debt to equity elevated and interest coverage near 3.8x. Liquidity metrics like a 0.74 current ratio require continued discipline. The Italy Lotto license fee path may weigh on margins. Competitive pressure in instant and digital channels is another watch‑item. Clear segment disclosures and cash conversion trends will matter in 2026.
Our stock grade shows a B with a HOLD stance, while the company rating reads B+ and Neutral. We would track three milestones: confirmed deleveraging toward 2.4x or better, the cadence of 2025 dividend buybacks, and clarity on Italy fee mechanics. A break above US$14.76 could invite momentum flows, while weakness near US$13.11 may test buyers.
Final Thoughts
Brightstar’s Q4 delivered modest growth and a dividend hike, while 2026 guidance targets 5% plus organic expansion despite Italy Lotto fee pressures. BRSL stock today reacted well, with rising volume and improving sentiment. For Canadian investors, the setup hinges on three factors: payout sustainability, deleveraging, and clear visibility on Italy. We would watch resistance near US$14.76 and the 50‑day average at US$14.78, alongside cash flow updates that support dividend buybacks. Until catalysts firm up, a balanced approach makes sense. Build positions gradually on weakness, confirm trend strength on breakouts, and keep currency effects in mind.
FAQs
Is BRSL stock today a buy after the Q4 beat?
We see an improved setup, but we would not chase without confirmation. The dividend hike to US$0.23 and 2026 guidance for 5% plus organic growth are positives. Risks remain around leverage, interest costs, and the Italy Lotto fee structure. A HOLD aligns with our B stock grade and Neutral company rating. A sustained move above US$14.76 with strong volume would strengthen the bull case.
What does the 2026 outlook signal for Brightstar earnings?
Management guided 2026 revenue to US$2.50–US$2.55 billion and EBITDA to US$1.16–US$1.19 billion, implying 5% plus organic growth. That suggests steady demand, digital progress, and cost control can offset Italy Lotto fee headwinds. The key watch‑items are margin stability, cash conversion, and capital return pacing. If EBITDA tracks the high end and leverage trends lower, we see scope for a re‑rating.
How do dividend buybacks affect shareholder returns?
The regular dividend rose to US$0.23 per quarter, which is about a 6.7% yield at US$13.72. Management also plans US$1 billion plus of 2025 shareholder returns through dividend buybacks. If buybacks occur below intrinsic value, they can lift EPS and free cash flow per share. The durability of these returns depends on cash generation, debt costs, and execution against leverage targets.
What are the main risks, including the Italy Lotto license?
Fee increases tied to the Italy Lotto license can pressure margins and cash flow. Balance sheet risk is notable given higher leverage and a current ratio near 0.74, while interest coverage around 3.8x leaves less room if rates stay high. Execution in digital and instant channels also matters. Clear disclosures on Italy fee timing, segment margins, and buyback cadence will help size these risks.
What should Canadian investors keep in mind when evaluating BRSL?
Dividends are paid in U.S. dollars, so CAD income will vary with exchange rates. Consider your account type, costs, and FX spread. From a portfolio view, weigh lottery stability against leverage and regulatory exposure in Italy. We would monitor resistance near US$14.76, 50‑day and 200‑day averages, and updates on deleveraging toward about 2.4x. Position sizing and patience can help manage volatility.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.