Bitcoin USD Retreats 1.21% Daily—Can BTCUSD Hold $62,500 Support?
Bitcoin USD (BTCUSD) is trading at $64,068.33 as of February 26, 2026, down 1.21% in the last 24 hours. The world’s largest cryptocurrency faces mounting pressure from a strong downtrend, with the ADX indicator at 48.81 signaling powerful bearish momentum. Market data shows volume remains below average at 40.8 billion, suggesting weak conviction behind the selling. Traders are watching key support levels closely as Bitcoin USD price prediction models suggest further consolidation ahead. Understanding the technical setup and market sentiment is critical for anyone tracking this major asset.
Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis
The technical picture for BTCUSD reveals significant weakness across multiple indicators. The RSI at 38.64 shows selling pressure remains elevated but not yet at extreme oversold levels. The MACD histogram at 506.86 is positive, suggesting the bearish signal line crossover may be losing steam, though the main MACD line sits deeply negative at -4,772.67.
The ADX at 48.81 confirms a strong downtrend is firmly in place, with price action below the 50-day moving average of $79,652. Bollinger Bands show Bitcoin USD trading near the lower band at $59,428.94, indicating the asset is near the lower edge of its volatility range. Support levels sit at $62,534.61 (today’s low) and $59,428.94 (Bollinger Band lower), while resistance forms at $64,988.32 (today’s high) and $79,318.50 (upper band).
Bitcoin USD Price Forecast
Monthly forecasts suggest Bitcoin USD could test $54,426.81, representing a 15.1% decline from current levels if selling accelerates. This level would represent a major capitulation point where historical buyers typically emerge. The quarterly forecast of $122,324.02 implies a 90.8% rally from current prices, suggesting the market expects a significant recovery within three months.
Yearly targets sit at $98,201.37, a 53.2% gain from today’s price, while the five-year forecast reaches $152,397.04, indicating long-term bullish conviction despite near-term weakness. These forecasts assume no major regulatory shocks or macroeconomic disruptions. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Large liquidations on derivatives platforms are reshaping market dynamics. A $10.41 million liquidation on the BTC-USD pair at Hyperliquid on February 26 highlights the leverage risks embedded in crypto trading. This unwinding of short positions typically creates temporary relief rallies, though the broader trend remains bearish.
Trading volume at 40.8 billion sits 13% below the 30-day average of 854.7 million, signaling weak participation. When volume declines during downtrends, it often indicates capitulation is incomplete. The market cap of $1.35 trillion remains substantial, but the year-to-date decline of 24.3% shows Bitcoin USD has underperformed expectations set earlier in 2026.
Why Bitcoin USD Is Retreating Today
Bitcoin USD’s 1.21% daily decline stems from a combination of technical breakdown and derivatives unwinding. The asset failed to hold above the $67,992.68 previous close, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. Miners expanding operations in Texas, as reported by major industry sources, may also signal confidence in lower prices ahead, reducing immediate buying pressure.
Macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment. The broader crypto market saw nearly $500 million in short liquidations on February 26, but this relief rally proved temporary. Bitcoin USD’s inability to reclaim the $70,000 level suggests institutional buyers remain cautious about near-term direction.
Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Bitcoin USD traders are monitoring three critical support zones. The $62,534.61 level (today’s low) represents the first line of defense, followed by the $59,428.94 Bollinger Band lower band. A break below $59,000 would open the door to the $60,001 year-low, a psychologically significant level.
On the upside, resistance forms at $64,988.32 (today’s high) and the 50-day moving average at $79,652. A sustained close above $70,000 would signal the downtrend is losing momentum. The $98,157.31 200-day moving average remains a major long-term resistance zone, currently 53% above current prices.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD is navigating a challenging technical environment with a strong downtrend confirmed by the ADX at 48.81 and RSI at 38.64. The 1.21% daily decline reflects broader market weakness, though the quarterly forecast of $122,324.02 suggests recovery potential within months. Support at $62,534.61 and $59,428.94 will determine whether selling pressure intensifies or stabilizes. Market sentiment remains mixed, with large liquidations creating temporary relief but weak volume suggesting conviction is lacking. Traders should monitor the $70,000 level closely—a sustained break above this zone would signal the downtrend is weakening. The Bitcoin USD price prediction models show extreme volatility ahead, with monthly targets near $54,426.81 and yearly targets at $98,201.37. Understanding these technical levels and market dynamics is essential for anyone tracking this major cryptocurrency as we move through late February 2026.
FAQs
Bitcoin USD declined due to a technical breakdown below the $67,992.68 previous close, triggering stop-loss orders. Large derivatives liquidations and weak trading volume contributed to the selling pressure on February 26, 2026.
The quarterly forecast for BTCUSD sits at $122,324.02, representing a 90.8% gain from current levels. This assumes market stabilization and recovery within the three-month timeframe.
The primary support for BTCUSD is at $62,534.61 (today’s low), followed by the Bollinger Band lower at $59,428.94. A break below $59,000 could test the year-low of $60,001.
The RSI at 38.64 indicates selling pressure but not extreme oversold conditions (which occur below 30). The strong ADX at 48.81 confirms the downtrend remains intact despite some stabilization signals.
A sustained close above $70,000 would signal downtrend weakness. Positive macroeconomic data, reduced derivatives leverage, or institutional buying could spark a recovery toward the quarterly target of $122,324.02.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.