Bitcoin USD Drops 4.5% as Tariff Shock Tests $64,500 Support
Bitcoin USD is trading at $64,576.96 as of February 23, 2026, down 4.5% in the last 24 hours following President Trump’s announcement of 15% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The sharp decline has sparked debate among traders about whether Bitcoin USD can hold critical support levels or if further downside awaits. Market data shows volume surged to 964 million, nearly double the average, signaling intense selling pressure. This pullback comes after Bitcoin USD had traded near $67,600 just hours earlier, highlighting the volatility driven by macroeconomic policy shifts. Understanding the technical setup and market dynamics is essential for tracking Bitcoin USD’s next move.
Why Is Bitcoin USD Dropping Today?
Bitcoin USD’s decline stems directly from Trump’s tariff announcement over the weekend, which rattled risk-on assets across crypto and traditional markets. The 15% blanket tariffs created immediate uncertainty about global trade flows and economic growth, prompting investors to reduce exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin USD. Trading firm QCP Capital called the tariff escalation an “immediate catalyst” for crypto weakness, noting it added another layer of policy uncertainty when macro risk appetite was already thinning.
What makes this selloff notable is the reaction pattern. Unlike previous tariff announcements where Bitcoin USD gapped lower immediately, this time the asset softened gradually into the Asia open. This suggests some institutional buyers may be absorbing weakness rather than panic selling, though the overall trend remains bearish for Bitcoin USD today.
Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis
The technical picture for Bitcoin USD shows mixed signals with some oversold conditions emerging. The RSI at 30.5 indicates oversold territory (below 30), suggesting selling pressure may be easing soon. However, the ADX at 50.17 confirms a strong downtrend is in place, meaning the oversold bounce could face resistance from the broader bearish momentum.
The MACD histogram at -20.58 shows the signal line is below the MACD line, confirming bearish momentum, though the negative values are narrowing slightly. Bitcoin USD is currently trading well below its 50-day moving average of $81,300 and significantly below the 200-day average of $98,927, reinforcing the intermediate downtrend. Support levels to watch include the Bollinger Band lower at $56,580 and resistance at the upper band of $88,488.
Bitcoin USD Price Forecast
Monthly Forecast: Bitcoin USD could test $54,426.81, representing a -15.7% decline from current levels if selling pressure intensifies and tariff concerns deepen. This level aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and would represent a significant capitulation move.
Quarterly Forecast: By end of Q1 2026, Bitcoin USD may recover to $122,324.02, a +89.5% rally from current prices, assuming tariff negotiations ease or market sentiment shifts positive. This target suggests traders expect a substantial rebound once policy uncertainty clears.
Yearly Forecast: For 2026, Bitcoin USD is projected at $98,201.37, a +52.1% gain from today’s price, implying a recovery to near the 200-day moving average but below the year-to-date highs. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Trading volume for Bitcoin USD surged to 964 million, nearly 2x the average volume of 472 million, indicating strong conviction behind the selling. The relative volume ratio of 1.98 confirms this is above-average activity, not just normal daily fluctuations. This elevated volume suggests institutional and retail traders are both participating in the selloff.
Liquidation data shows the market is experiencing significant pain, with negative funding rates indicating short positions are being rewarded. The Money Flow Index at 55.06 sits in neutral territory, suggesting neither extreme buying nor selling pressure from a volume-weighted perspective. However, the On-Balance Volume at -240.8 billion shows cumulative selling has dominated recent sessions, confirming the bearish bias in Bitcoin USD’s current structure.
Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin USD
Bitcoin USD’s immediate support sits at $64,200, where a cluster of buy orders has historically formed. If this level breaks, the next support is the Bollinger Band lower at $56,580, which would represent a test of psychological round numbers and potential capitulation. The day low of $63,855 from today’s session is also relevant as a fresh support point.
Resistance above current levels begins at $66,500, where traders are likely taking profits on any bounces. The day high of $67,656 represents the session’s upper boundary, and breaking above this would signal a potential reversal. The 50-day moving average at $81,300 remains a major resistance zone for any sustained recovery in Bitcoin USD.
What’s Next for Bitcoin USD Investors?
The path forward for Bitcoin USD depends heavily on tariff negotiations and broader macroeconomic developments. If Trump’s tariff threats ease or get scaled back, Bitcoin USD could see a sharp relief rally toward the $70,000-$75,000 range within days. Conversely, if tariffs are implemented as announced, Bitcoin USD may test the $60,000 level as risk-off sentiment deepens across markets.
Traders are watching the $65,000 level closely as a make-or-break point. According to Cointelegraph, some analysts see a potential drop to $60,000 if support fails, while others note tentative signs of recovery in Coinbase Premium data. The oversold RSI suggests a bounce is possible, but the strong ADX warns that any rally could face selling pressure from the broader downtrend.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD is navigating a critical inflection point as tariff uncertainty weighs on risk appetite. Trading at $64,576.96 with a -4.5% daily decline, the asset shows classic oversold signals through its RSI of 30.5, yet the strong ADX of 50.17 confirms the downtrend remains intact. Support at $64,200 and $63,855 are being tested, while resistance above $66,500 will determine if a bounce can gain traction. The technical setup suggests Bitcoin USD could see either a sharp relief rally if macro conditions improve or a deeper test toward $60,000 if selling accelerates. Volume has surged to nearly 2x average levels, confirming institutional participation in this move. For Bitcoin USD traders, the key is monitoring whether the oversold bounce materializes or if tariff concerns push the asset toward lower support levels. The quarterly forecast of $122,324 suggests the market expects eventual recovery, but near-term volatility will likely persist until policy clarity emerges. CryptoNews reports that Trump’s tariff announcement was the primary catalyst, making macro developments the dominant driver for Bitcoin USD’s direction in the coming days.
FAQs
Bitcoin USD fell **4.5%** due to President Trump’s announcement of 15% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The tariff escalation created immediate uncertainty about global trade and economic growth, prompting investors to reduce exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin USD.
Bitcoin USD is projected at **$98,201.37** for 2026, representing a **+52.1% gain** from current levels. The quarterly forecast shows **$122,324.02**, while the monthly forecast suggests a potential test of **$54,426.81** if selling intensifies.
Yes, the RSI at **30.5** indicates oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may ease soon. However, the strong ADX at **50.17** confirms the downtrend remains intact, so any bounce could face resistance from broader bearish momentum.
Key support for Bitcoin USD includes **$64,200**, the **day low of $63,855**, and the **Bollinger Band lower at $56,580**. Resistance sits at **$66,500** and the **day high of $67,656**. Breaking below $64,200 could trigger a test toward $60,000.
Yes, if tariff negotiations ease or sentiment shifts positive, Bitcoin USD could rally toward **$70,000-$75,000** within days. The oversold RSI and tentative Coinbase Premium recovery suggest a bounce is possible, though the strong downtrend may limit gains.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.