Bitcoin USD Breaks Below $64K—Fair Value Gap Points to $45K Target
Bitcoin USD is testing critical support levels as major mining companies liquidate holdings. The cryptocurrency fell below $64,000 on February 24, 2026, marking a significant technical breakdown. BTCUSD has declined 0.62% in the last 24 hours, with traders now eyeing deeper price targets. Market data shows a fair value gap forming around $45,000, suggesting further downside pressure. Understanding why Bitcoin USD is breaking support levels helps clarify the current market structure and what comes next.
Why Bitcoin USD Is Breaking Support Levels
Bitcoin USD’s breakdown below $64,000 stems from multiple pressures converging simultaneously. Major mining firm Bitdeer recently sold its entire Bitcoin reserve, signaling reduced confidence in near-term price recovery. This institutional liquidation coincides with technical failures—the 200-week exponential moving average has flipped from support to resistance, a classic bear market signal. The cryptocurrency’s market cap sits at $1.29 trillion, but volume-weighted selling has intensified. Traders report that failure to reclaim support increasingly places long-term trend lines at risk, creating cascading sell orders as stop losses trigger.
Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis
Current technical indicators paint a bearish picture for BTCUSD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30.39, indicating oversold conditions where selling pressure is extreme but potential reversal signals may emerge. The MACD histogram shows -5434.19 with a signal line at -5458.68, confirming bearish momentum as the fast line remains below the signal line. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 51.17, reflecting a strong downtrend with conviction behind the selling. Bollinger Bands position Bitcoin USD near the lower band at $56,942.53, with the upper band at $85,667.90, showing price has compressed toward the downside. Support and resistance levels are critical: the $62,534.61 day low represents immediate support, while the $64,988.32 day high acts as near-term resistance.
Bitcoin USD Price Forecast
Monthly Forecast: Bitcoin USD could test $54,426.81, representing a 14.9% decline from current levels. This move would fill the fair value gap identified by technical analysts and align with historical support zones. Quarterly Forecast: Recovery potential emerges at $122,324.02, a 91.2% gain that assumes stabilization and renewed institutional buying. This level would require breaking above the 200-week moving average and reclaiming the $80,000 zone. Yearly Forecast: The $98,201.37 target suggests a 53.5% recovery from monthly lows, positioning Bitcoin USD between current support and all-time highs. This timeframe allows for capitulation, accumulation, and eventual trend reversal. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
Trading volume for Bitcoin USD reached 772.3 million on February 24, 2026, exceeding the 30-day average of 497.6 million by 55%. This elevated volume confirms conviction behind the selling, not panic liquidations. Liquidation data shows significant long positions closing as traders reduce exposure to downside risk. The relative volume indicator at 1.49 suggests above-average participation, with institutional and retail sellers both active. Market sentiment has shifted from accumulation to distribution, with miners and large holders exiting positions. This behavior typically precedes deeper price declines as weak hands exit before capitulation.
Historical Context and Price Levels
Bitcoin USD has declined 27.9% over the past month and 43.4% over six months, marking one of the steepest corrections since 2022. The year-to-date loss stands at 27.6%, though the three-year return remains positive at 177%. The 50-day moving average sits at $80,762.94, while the 200-day average is $98,662.88, both well above current price. This gap between short-term and long-term averages indicates a severe downtrend. The year high of $126,296 and year low of $60,001 frame the trading range, with Bitcoin USD now approaching the lower boundary. Historical precedent shows that when Bitcoin USD breaks below key moving averages, it often fills fair value gaps before establishing new support.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin USD
The immediate outlook for Bitcoin USD depends on whether $62,534.61 holds as support. A break below this level opens the path to $54,426.81 and eventually the $45,000 fair value gap. Traders are watching for a weekly close below the 200-week exponential moving average, which would confirm a bearish retest pattern. Recovery scenarios require Bitcoin USD to reclaim $70,000 and establish new support above the 50-day moving average. Macro factors including AI market concerns, geopolitical tensions, and trade tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on risk assets. The next 30 days will likely determine whether Bitcoin USD stabilizes or accelerates toward lower targets.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin USD’s breakdown below $64,000 reflects both technical failure and fundamental selling pressure from major mining companies. The cryptocurrency faces a critical test at $62,534.61, with the fair value gap at $45,000 representing the next significant target if support breaks. Technical indicators including RSI at 30.39 and ADX at 51.17 confirm strong downtrend momentum, while elevated trading volume validates the selling conviction. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin USD may need to fill inefficiencies before establishing a meaningful bottom. The monthly forecast of $54,426.81 and yearly target of $98,201.37 frame a wide range of outcomes depending on market stabilization. Traders should monitor support levels closely, as a weekly close below the 200-week moving average would signal additional bearish acceleration. The current environment favors patience and risk management over aggressive positioning in either direction.
FAQs
Bitcoin USD fell due to a major mining company selling its entire reserve and technical breakdown below the 200-week moving average. Macro headwinds including AI market concerns and geopolitical tensions also pressured the cryptocurrency lower.
Technical analysts identified a fair value gap around $45,000, created when price moved quickly out of range. This inefficiency typically gets filled before a meaningful bottom forms in Bitcoin USD’s price action.
Yes, the RSI at 30.39 indicates oversold conditions for Bitcoin USD. However, oversold readings don’t guarantee immediate recovery—price often extends further before reversal signals emerge.
The $62,534.61 day low is immediate support, followed by the $54,426.81 monthly forecast level. The $45,000 fair value gap represents the next major support zone if Bitcoin USD continues declining.
The yearly forecast of $98,201.37 is possible but requires Bitcoin USD to stabilize, break above $70,000, and reclaim the 50-day moving average. This scenario assumes capitulation completes and institutional buying resumes.
The MACD histogram at 24.49 with signal line at -5458.68 shows bearish momentum for Bitcoin USD. The fast line remains below the signal line, confirming downtrend continuation.
The ADX at 51.17 indicates a very strong downtrend for Bitcoin USD. Values above 25 confirm trend strength, and readings above 50 show exceptional conviction behind the selling pressure.
Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.