AGL.AX Stock Today: February 25 — Rally Pauses, Buy Calls Flag 14%+ Upside
The AGL Energy share price is pausing today as AGL.AX tests a tight resistance zone near A$10.95–A$11.23. After a sharp two-week climb, momentum is still constructive, while brokers at Citi, RBC, and UBS reaffirmed Buy calls with A$11–A$11.80 targets. Trading screens show a bullish skew and a possible path to A$13.25 if buyers break through supply. With tighter FY26 guidance and a higher interim dividend in focus, today’s session may set the next short-term trend for investors in Australia.
Rally Pauses Near Key Resistance
The AGL Energy share price sits near resistance at A$10.95–A$11.23 after printing a day high around A$10.15. RSI is 62.13 and ADX is 36.17, which reflects strong but cooling momentum. The upper Bollinger Band at A$11.07 and prior peak near A$11.23 frame supply. With ATR at A$0.23, intraday swings matter as buyers try to defend recent gains.
A close above A$11.07 would show strength, while a decisive push through A$11.23 could invite trend followers. The Keltner upper band sits at A$10.32, so pullbacks toward that area may test dip demand. OBV is firm and MFI at 74.70 signals active buying. The AGL Energy share price needs volume to confirm any breakout.
Broker Calls Signal 14%+ Upside
Citi, RBC, and UBS kept Buy ratings after tighter FY26 guidance and a higher interim dividend, with analyst price targets at A$11–A$11.80. TradingView sentiment shows 9 of 10 buys, while local coverage highlights room to run following the surge. See context from Motley Fool AU on the recent move and remaining upside here.
At a recent price near A$10.15, A$11–A$11.80 implies roughly 8%–16% upside, with a bull case to A$13.25 if resistance breaks. ChartWatch scans recently flagged the setup and key levels investors are watching here. For the AGL Energy share price, confirmation above A$11.23 would validate those targets.
Fundamentals and Dividend Check
AGL Energy shares trade on a price to book of 1.44 and an EV to EBITDA near 7.70. The company posts a small loss per share of A$0.15, so PE is not meaningful. Debt to equity is about 1.16 with interest coverage at 2.38. Market cap is roughly A$6.83 billion, which anchors the large customer base.
TTM dividends total A$0.49 for a yield near 4.83%, though the payout ratio screens negative on statutory losses. Management’s dividend guidance will matter as cash needs fund transition projects. Tighter FY26 guidance and the higher interim dividend have supported sentiment, but the AGL Energy share price will track execution, cash flow, and wholesale pricing into results on 12 August 2026.
Levels to Watch and Trade Ideas
For momentum traders, a clean break and hold above A$10.95–A$11.23 opens room toward A$11.80, then A$13.25 on sustained volume. With ATR at A$0.23, some use 1.0–1.5x ATR for risk. A close back below A$11.00 after a breakout attempt would weaken the case. The AGL Energy share price benefits from strong ADX, but confirmation is key.
Initial support sits at A$10.00 and today’s low near A$9.94. The monthly model at A$9.86 and Bollinger mid-band at A$9.68 follow, with the 50-day average around A$9.30 as a deeper level. Some traders place stops 1.0–1.5x ATR below entry. For AGL Energy shares, a loss of A$9.68 would shift focus to A$9.30.
Final Thoughts
The setup is straightforward. The AGL Energy share price has paused under a proven supply zone at A$10.95–A$11.23. A strong close above it could confirm the next leg toward A$11.80 and potentially A$13.25, backed by Buy calls and firm trend signals. Pullbacks to A$10.00–A$9.86 can test whether dip buyers still control the tape. Fundamentally, valuation is reasonable on book and EV to EBITDA, while losses and leverage argue for discipline. For traders, let price confirm before acting and size risk around ATR. For long-term investors, watch dividend guidance, cash flow, and the August result for evidence the recovery can stick.
FAQs
Is there still upside after the recent run?
Brokers at Citi, RBC, and UBS kept Buy ratings with A$11–A$11.80 targets, which is about 8%–16% above a recent A$10.15 print. A bullish scenario points to A$13.25 if resistance clears. The next confirmation is a firm close above A$11.07 and the A$11.23 peak.
What key levels should I watch today?
Resistance sits at A$10.95–A$11.23, with the upper Bollinger Band near A$11.07. Supports are A$10.00, A$9.94, A$9.86, and A$9.68, then the 50-day average around A$9.30. ATR is A$0.23, so intraday swings can be meaningful around these zones.
How does valuation look for AGL Energy?
AGL Energy shares trade around 1.44 times book value and about 7.70 times EV to EBITDA. Earnings are negative, so PE is not useful. Dividend yield is near 4.83% on A$0.49 TTM, but the payout ratio is negative, so cash generation and capex needs remain important.
What could move the stock next?
Breakout or rejection at A$10.95–A$11.23 may drive near-term direction. Medium term, wholesale prices, plant outages, policy headlines, and broker updates matter. Dividend guidance and FY26 milestones are key. The next scheduled earnings report is on 12 August 2026, which could reset estimates.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.